On August 27, the dust will be cleared from Floyd Mayweather boxing Conor McGregor, and the UFC world will once again focus on promoting…MMA. In so many ways Mayweather vs. McGregor has consumed the combat sports landscape. While the mega bout will likely be a financial boon for the UFC, the promotion still must book five pay-per-views before the end of 2017.
Thus far 2017 is a year that the UFC has failed to maintain momentum on pay-per-view. Only the loaded UFC 214 card has exceeded 500,000 pay-per-view buys. 500K is not the massive number that the UFC would consider a home-run, but considering the current state of UFC business, it is an attainable goal.
The UFC has 5 scheduled pay-per-view events remaining in 2017. Here are my predictions on whether or not these events will exceed 500K pay-per-view buys.
UFC 215
Scheduled Title Fights
Demetrius Johnson vs. Ray Borg (Flyweight Championship)
Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko (Women’s Bantamweight Championship)
Over/Under 500K: Under
UFC 215 is a very good card on paper, but not an event that appeals to the general audience. Demetrius Johnson simply does not move units, and Ray Borg is a virtual unknown to the broader public. On the other hand, Amanda Nunes has been in the main event of two very high profile cards but her stardom has not catapulted. If anything, her reputation has been hampered by her late withdraw from UFC 213 and the subsequent public disparagement from UFC President Dana White. A card headlined by two champions that the UFC has undermined in recent months has little chance of box office success.
UFC 216
Scheduled Title Fights
Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee (Interim Lightweight Championship)
Over/Under 500K: Under
Tony Ferguson facing Kevin Lee for an interim lightweight belt is absolutely ludicrous. Both are exciting fighters but nobody was clamoring for this fight. This fight is happening solely because the UFC could not book a legitimate title fight. The only carrot that the UFC could possibly dangle here, would be to “promise” that the winner would face Conor McGregor when he returns to the UFC. Taking the UFC at their word is a risky proposition. Furthermore, the under card of UFC 216 is much more of a Fight Night lineup.
UFC 217
Scheduled Title Fights
Michael Bisping vs. Georges St-Pierre (Welterweight Championship)
Cody Garbrandt vs. T.J. Dillashaw (men’s Bantamweight Championship)
Over/Under 500K: Over
UFC 217 might very well end up outselling UFC 214. Although many are sour on the Michael Bisping vs. Georges St- Pierre fight, it still holds the appeal of GSP returning after a four-year absence. Additionally, Bisping’s presence on FS1 will only help to promote this fight. If the main event does not appeal to the more discerning fans, Cody Garbrandt finally taking on T.J. Dillashaw will feed the UFC’s core audience. Also, if the rumored fight between strawweight champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Rose Namajunas takes place at UFC 217, the UFC’s return to Madison Square Garden will be very successful.
UFC 218
Scheduled Title Fights
None at this time.
Over/Under 500K: Under
As of August 21, only one fight that has been announced is Felice Herrig vs. Cortney Casey, and it would seem difficult to create an intriguing card here. Of course, if the UFC was insistent on putting Kevin Lee in a main event perhaps presenting him in his hometown of Detroit would have been a more prudent move. If the UFC can settle contract negotiations with heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic, a title defense against Cain Velasquez would move the needle, but not break the bank. It would also be a strange dynamic to have the proud Ohio native headlining in Michigan.
UFC 219
Scheduled Title Fights
None at this time.
Over/Under 500K: Over
Currently there are no fights announced for UFC 219. However, the UFC generally delivers captivating cards at the end of the year. Logically, if Conor McGregor returns to the UFC in 2017 it would most likely come at UFC 219. If McGregor is unwilling or unavailable, this would be a prime spot for Jon Jones to take on Alexander Gustafsson. If the card finds a solid headliner, it could also find a boost by featuring Cris “Cyborg” Justino defending her featherweight title against Holly Holm.
NOW CHECK OUT LAST WEEK’S COLUMN: MEDIA & BUSINESS: The State of the UFC “Money Fight” – what options are out there and how likely is each
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