BELLATOR 229 PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS 10/04: Grocke’s updated odds & predictions for every fight
Bellator 229 preview
Bellator MMA makes its way west to the Pechanga Resort and Casino in Temecula, California on Friday night. The main event takes place in the welterweight division where Andrey Koreshkov takes on Lorenz Larkin. In the co-main lightweights Saad Awad and Goiti Yamauchi square off against each other.
The main card also includes Joe Schilling taking on Tony Johnson and Keri Melendez goes up against Mandy Polk.
The prelims will stream on DAZN and the Bellator mobile app beginning at 7:00 PM (CST). The main card will air on the Paramount Network starting at 8:00 PM (CST).
Note: The predictions in this column do not necessarily mean that I will be betting them. I have changed my mind in the past and gone the other way after conducting more research. For all my official bets follow me on Twitter @MichaelGrocke.
Bellator 229 Main Card
Andrey Koreshkov (22-3) vs. Lorenz Larkin (20-7, 1 NC) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Koreshkov -180; Larkin +150
After losing to Douglas Lima at Bellator 206, Andrey Koreshkov returned to the win column in his most recent fight by defeating Mike Jasper via unanimous decision. Koreshkov is now 3-1 in his last four fights. The Russian born fighter will make the walk for the twenty-sixth time on Friday night. Fifteen of the twenty-nine-year old’s twenty-two career victories ended inside the distance; twelve via knockout.
Former UFC fighter Lorenz Larkin didn’t start his stint under the Bellator banner the way he expected. Larkin lost his two fights in his new promotion. He dropped a unanimous decision to Douglas Lima at Bellator 180 and then Paul Daley finished him in the second round at Bellator 183. Since then Larkin has won his last two bouts. He beat Fernando Gonzalez via unanimous decision at Bellator 193 and his most recent win occurred at Bellator 207 where he defeated Ion Pascu also by unanimous decision. Eleven of his twenty career victories ended inside the distance; all via knockout. This fight will be the twenty-ninth fight for the thirty-three-year old.
My official pick: Koreshkov by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass, for now. Koreshkov was -210 at one point. I’m going to continue to monitor the number here. If money keeps coming in on Larkin, I might pull the trigger and back Koreshkov.
Saad Awad (23-11) vs. Goiti Yamauchi (23-4) – Lightweight 155 lbs.
Current Odds: Yamauchi -340; Awad +270
After winning four in a row, Saad Awad has lost his last two fights. He lost to Benson Henderson at Bellator 208 and Brandon Girtz at Bellator 219, both via unanimous decision. Seventeen of his twenty-three career victories ended inside the distance, ten via knockout to go along with seven by submission. This will be the thirty-six-year old’s thirty-fifth pro fight on Friday night.
Goiti Yamauchi is 4-1 in his previous five fights. His most recent fight was at Bellator 210 where he defeated Daniel Weichel via split decision. Eighteen of the Japanese born fighter’s twenty-three victories are via submission. At twenty-six-years old, Yamauchi makes the walk for the twenty-eight time.
My official pick: Yamauchi by decision.
From a betting perspective: Awad is as tough as they come. Pass
Keri Melendez (3-0) vs. Mandy Polk (3-4) – Catchweight 118 lbs.
Current Odds: Melendez -310; Polk +250
Thirty-five-year old Keri Melendez has yet to taste defeat by winning her first three pro fights in a row. Her most recent win came at Bellator 206 where she beat Dakota Zimmerman via split decision. Only one of her three wins went the distance.
Mandy Polk enters her against Melendez riding a three-fight win streak. Her most recent win occurred at Bang Fighting Championships 18 where she subbed Brianna Smith in the first round. All three of her recent victories ended in the first round via submission. Friday’s fight will be Polk’s Bellator debut and the eleventh of her career. Four of her six career victories are via submission.
My official pick: Melendez by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass, for now. Bellator is obviously building Keri up to be one of their WMMA stars and while I’m confident she’s going o get the win I can’t justify laying 3-1 odds. I’d like to see the odds drop below -300.
Joe Schilling (4-5) vs. Tony Johnson (8-2) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
Current Odds: Johnson -165; Schilling +145
Joe Schilling has won his last two fights in a row. His most recent win occurred at Bellator 219 where he defeated Keith Berry via unanimous decision. Three of his four victories ended inside the distance. At thirty-five-years old, Schilling will make the walk for the tenth time.
Tony Johnson enters Friday’s fight on a modest four-fight win streak. His most recent victory was at Dana White’s Contender Series, Season Three where he beat Alton Cunningham via unanimous decision. This will be the thirty-six-year old’s second fight under the Bellator banner. He won his promotional debut by defeating Mike Ortega at Bellator 183. This will be his eleventh professional fight.
My official pick: Johnson by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass
Prelims Quick Picks
Anderson -355 over Bomba +260
Tokov -500 over Darpinyan +350
Altamimi -130 over Mukidinov +100
Wilson over Juarez
Imhotep over Gentapanan
Alonso over Eblen
Newman over Miller
Tokov over Hastings
Davis over Peterson
Enjoy the fights!
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