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The winner of UFC 160's Gray Maynard vs. T.J. Grant bout will get the next shot at Ben Henderson; how do they matchup against the Champ, and which would you give a better chance at defeating Henderson and why?
RICH HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
Well, if it's Gray Maynard, I think you can just chalk in a bunch of 48-47 scorecards right now, and fill in the winner's name by flipping a coin immediately before Bruce Buffer says either STILL or NEW.
The answer isn't so simple if T.J. Grant gets the shot at Henderson. First, I'm not at all convinced that if Grant beats Maynard that Grant is getting the shot at the title. Melendez, Alvarez, and Aldo or Pettis could all easily slip ahead of Grant to get the shot at the champion of both the Lightweight Division and of Not Drawing Flies To Shit when it comes to PPV sales. Henderson vs. Grant will do sub 200,000 buys if it isn't supported with a massive undercard.
Jose Aldo has been promised a title shot at 155 if he defeats Anthony Pettis. Anthony Pettis has been told he has to stay at 145, but Dana White tells lots of people lots of things. Once the facts change, he, um..., adapts history to fit the best for his company. Gilbert Melendez's right pinkie fingernail has more charisma and marketability than T.J. Grant. And Eddie Alvarez might finagle his way into a title shot upon his (hypothetical) UFC debut.
So, clearly I doubt Grant's getting the shot even if he thrashes Gray Maynard. As of today, I don't think Grant is capable of defeating Henderson. Wins over Evan Dunham and Matt Wiman mean you're really good at fighting. A win over Gray Maynard mean you're capable of hanging with (but not necessarily defeating) the best. It's pointless to say how Grant is going to do against Henderson without seeing how he does against his first ever top-five opponent first.
C.J. TUTTLE, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
Gray Maynard is ranked third in the rankings and defeated Clay Guida last summer. He has fought for the strap twice and almost claimed a victory over Frankie Edgar. T.J. Grant on the other hand has reeled off consecutive victories over Shane Roller, Carlo Prater, Evan Dunham, and Matt Wiman. While I think both are deserving in their own ways of a title shot I feel as if Maynard will have a better chance of squeaking out a victory over Henderson. I base this solely off the common denominator of Edgar and the success they both had against him. Until I see Grant take Edgar to the limit, I remain on the fence.
FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
I think Maynard matches up well against Henderson. I don't really think either guy will beat Henderson, but Maynard has the best shot because of his wrestling and power. Grant's a good fighter, too, and it'll be interesting to see if he can beat Maynard to earn the title shot. I think Maynard beats Grant by TKO and then loses a close decision to Henderson.
BRAD WALKER, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
Maynard probably has the better shot to beat Bendo, but I wouldn't pick either of them to do it on a normal day. Henderson is only getting better, and the matchup between Grant and Maynard will likely be a heavy handed showdown. The primary reason I would say Maynard has an advantage is because of his history of being in high stakes fights whereas Grant has just exploded onto the scene.
ERIC HOBAUGH, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
I think T.J. Grant does not match up well against Henderson. I think he has almost no chance to win against the current champ. Maynard, on the other hand, may posess the right mix of size and wrestling to win the title if he can beat Grant. I think you can make the argument Henderson has actually lost his last three fights, even though the score cards read differently. He is by no means a dominant champ. Maynard is definitely powerful and knowledgable enough to beat Henderson. He stand up is ever improving and his wrestling should be a handful for Henderson. I think Maynard is not only a better match up in this fight, I think he will win the lightweight strap.
ALVIN CARTER, MMATORCH SPECIALIST
Gray Maynard and Ben Henderson could have a great wrestling match if they meet, or their high level wrestling skills could make this a stand up affair. Henderson has the grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground, and he has superior overal striking. Still, Maynard is durable and has knockout power. I see Henderson winning by decision or submission.
Henderson and T.J. Grant are both BJJ brown belts and both ar riding healthy win streaks (providing Grant gets past Maynard). This fight actually stacks up to be more exciting than Henderson vs. Maynard, but it is more lopsided to Henderson winning in a decisive fashion and possibly with a finish.
DAN MOORE, MMATORCH UK CONTRIBUTOR
Grant has looked superb since dropping down to lightweight. His first round finish of the durable Matt Wiman was very impressive indeed. However, he’s about to reach his ceiling against Gray Maynard. I wouldn’t give Grant a hope in hell of beating Benson Henderson at this moment in time.
Maynard, however, has only one defeat by stoppage [vs. Edgar] and a plethora of decision wins to his name, much like the champ. While not as good as Henderson in the stand up, he’s equally powerful, forever relentless, and another very gifted wrestler. Henderson would start as the clear favourite: but Maynard will present a big challenge if/when he beats Grant next month.
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