Penick's Take
UFC 131 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for Dos Santos vs. Carwin event from Vancouver
Jun 11, 2011 - 8:00:29 AM UFC 131 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for Dos Santos vs. Carwin event from Vancouver

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 131 has undergone a number of shakeups due to injuries and illnesses, but the card will still come to Vancouver's Rogers Arena on Saturday night. The UFC is welcoming a lot of new faces to the fold on the card, and has made a rare choice to put three newcomers on the pay-per-view broadcast. That doesn't mean there isn't plenty to be interested in on the card, especially in the top two fights with the heavyweight #1 contender fight between Shane Carwin and Junior Dos Santos as well as Kenny Florian's featherweight debut. With that out of the way, here's what's on tap for the night's main card, along with quick picks for the rest of the night's fights:

Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin (Heavyweight)

This massive heavyweight fight actually became a somewhat more interesting fight with the loss of Brock Lesnar. The Lesnar-Dos Santos fight would have been a great matchup, and a chance to see if Lesnar had learned from the punches he took from Carwin and Cain Velasquez last year.

Now, this matchup pits two fairly even striking games against one another. Both of these fighters have ridiculous power in their hands, and each has done a lot of damage in the UFC with that those skills.

Carwin hadn't ever left the first round prior to his loss to Brock Lesnar last July, while Dos Santos had stopped everyone he'd beaten outside of a decision against Roy Nelson in his last fight. Both fighters have identical 12-1 records, and both are this win away from a title shot against Velasquez later this year.

The biggest question mark coming into the fight is Carwin and how his body will handle the fight after a lengthy layoff and recovery from surgery. His UFC 116 performance caught a ton of flack for him gassing out in the first round and not having much to offer in the second, and though he's claiming it won't be an issue in this fight, until he proves he can keep that up past the first round it will remain a question mark. With the injury and recovery from surgery it ups that question even further.

Of course, one of the reasons he hasn't been tested on that front is his ability to finish opponents quickly, and if he can get his hands to touch the jaw of Dos Santos, he could very well end this fight in the first round.

For Dos Santos, it's going to be about using his speed and crisper technique to land his punches against Carwin, and he'll need to wear his opponent down while avoiding the knockout blows himself. Carwin's been cracked before, and he was dropped by Gabriel Gonzaga in their fight in 2009. If Dos Santos can deliver that knockdown blow himself, I think he can take this fight. Carwin certainly has a good chance of winning, but I'm going to take the Brazilian to keep his title shot intact.

PREDICTION: Dos Santos via TKO in the second round

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes (Featherweight)

Kenny Florian has lost four times in the UFC in 15 fights since 2005. Those four losses have come to Diego Sanchez, Sean Sherk, B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard. He's making the drop to the featherweight division for the first time in this fight, and in doing so becoming the first fighter in UFC history to have a fight in four different weight classes.

Diego Nunes, though he's fighting in the co-main event, is entirely under the radar, and will act as a stiff welcome to the division for Florian. The 28-year-old Brazilian holds a 16-1 record, with his sole loss coming by decision in August of 2009.

Nunes began his career 11-0, with stoppages in all of those fights in Brazil, but since jumping up to the WEC and now the UFC, he's been unable to finish any of his opponents. However, those decision wins have come in some solid all around performances against some very stiff competition. Most recently, he shocked most by completely out-working former division champ Mike Brown in his UFC debut at UFC 125.

Meanwhile, outside of his four losses to what has all essentially been elite talent, Florian has done almost nothing except decisively defeat his opponent in the Octagon. With 11 wins in the UFC, only one of those has gone to the judges scorecards, and only two others have reached the third round.

Florian is a very talented striker and submission specialist, his troubles have always come in getting out-muscled by better wrestlers who were able to control him and avoid his submission attacks. But in dropping down to featherweight, and working more on the strength part of his game, Florian may be setting himself in the best possible spot for accomplishing what he's wanted to accomplish, and that's being a champion in the UFC.

Nunes is a very good fighter, and I expect him to give Florian some trouble in this fight, but I don't think he's near the level of fighter at this point in his career as the others the have beaten Florian, and I think Florian has handled fighters that are better than Nunes. Florian takes this and goes on to meet Jose Aldo this fall.

PREDICTION: Florian via submission in the second round

Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz (Middleweight)

This is an excellent middleweight fight, and an interesting stylistic matchup. Maia made a name for himself in the UFC with his incredible submission game, stopping his first five opponents and winning four "Submission of the Night" bonuses in that stretch. However, in five fights since then, he's gone 3-2 and hasn't finished anyone.

Munoz is back on a two fight winning streak after suffering his second career loss in a split decision against Yushin Okami last August. In his last fight, he stopped C.B. Dollaway in :54 seconds in what was certainly a questionable stoppage on the part of the referee.

Munoz has the power to finish Maia in this fight, and Maia has been stopped by strikes before, but Maia's also got a sneaky good wrestling game, and we haven't seen Munoz forced to defend submissions against the likes of him before. I think Maia finds a way to avoid the power strikes of Munoz, gets this fight to the ground and gets back to his old ways.

PREDICTION: Maia via submission in the second round

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman (Heavyweight)

This fight is a great unknown. Einemo is a fantastic grappler and is certainly capable of submitting most anyone, but he hasn't been an active MMA fighter since 2006.

Herman has been extremely active, and has amassed a 20-2 record in the sport, with one of those losses being by disqualification. Oh, and all 22 of those fights happened after Einemo left the sport in 2006. Herman is a fast, flashy and entertaining fighter, but is still relatively unproven based on his level of competition.

So that leaves questions on both sides as to just what the two of these UFC newcomers are going to bring to the cage. I'm excited to find out, but ultimately I'm going to side with the guy who has stayed very active over the last several years.

PREDICTION: Herman via TKO in the first round

Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha (Lightweight)

Rocha is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt under Pablo Popovitch in Florida, and brings a 6-1 record into his UFC debut.

Cerrone is a two-time WEC title challenger and a submission specialist in his own right, and is by far the more experienced and established fighter coming into this one.

"The Cowboy" has especially impressive in his recent three fight winning streak, starting with a career best performance against Jamie Varner last September. Another submission win over Chris Horodecki followed and then he entered the UFC with a come-from-behind submission over Paul Kelly in a great fight in February.

While Rocha could certainly waltz in and hand Cerrone a loss, I'm sticking with the overwhelming favorite in this one to handle business against the less-experienced newcomer.

PREDICTION: Cerrone via submission in the second round

=====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS=====

* Yves Edwards over Sam Stout via unanimous decision

* Chris Weidman over Jesse Bongfeldt via TKO in the first round

* Krzysztof Soszynski over Mike Massenzio via submission in the first round

* Nick Ring over James Head via unanimous decision

* Dustin Poirier over Jason Young by TKO in the first round

* Aaron Rosa over Joey Beltran via unanimous decision

* Michihiro Omigawa over Darren Elkins via TKO in the second round

=====CONFIDENCE AND BETTING CONTEST PICKS=====

12 - Florian - sub rd 2
11 - Soszynski - sub rd 1
10 - Poirier - TKO rd 1
9 - Omigawa - TKO rd 2
8 - Cerrone - sub rd 2
7 - Maia - sub rd 2
6 - Edwards - dec
5 - Rosa - dec
4 - JDS - TKO rd
3 - Herman - TKO rd 1
2 - Weidman - TKO rd 1
1 - Ring - dec

$200 parlay on Florian, Edwards, Rosa,

$400 on Edwards

$300 on Rosa

$100 on Maia