Penick's Take
UFC ON FOX 3 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Miller vs. Diaz" event
May 5, 2012 - 10:05:37 AM UFC ON FOX 3 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Miller vs. Diaz" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC returns to Fox for the third time on Saturday night, featuring an action packed four-fight main card from the IZOD Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Headlining the night's event is a fantastic lightweight matchup between Nate Diaz and Jim Miller, and it's joined on the Fox broadcast by fun fights in three other weight classes. Here's what's on tap for the main card on Fox:

Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller (Lightweight)

Jim Miller is one of the most successful lightweights to have never gotten a shot at the UFC Lightweight Title. The 28-year-old has only lost three times in his 23 fight career, with all three coming against elite competition in two-time title challenger Gray Maynard, former Champion and current challenger Frankie Edgar, and current Champion Ben Henderson.

He posted a seven fight winning streak in between the Maynard and Henderson losses, and rebounded from the loss to Henderson with a first round finish of Melvin Guillard in January. He's a threat to any fighter in the submission department, with really solid grappling skills and an intelligent approach to his attacks. He can strike as well, but his wrestling and submission game are where he's most effective.

Diaz has reemerged as a challenger in the lightweight division after a brief stint up at welterweight, and hopes to secure his first title shot with what would be his biggest win in the lightweight division. The season five winner of The Ultimate Fighter has had a bit of an enigmatic career, and can often be his worst enemy in close fights (not unlike his brother, Nick).

His 10-5 UFC record is very solid, but all five of those losses came in a two-year stretch where he went just 3-5 through eight fights. All of those losses came by decision, as Diaz wasn't effective enough against Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson, and Gray Maynard, and then was overpowered at welterweight by Dong Hyun Kim and manhandled by Rory MacDonald.

Diaz's last two wins were very impressive, however. He decimated Takanori Gomi and submitted him with an armbar in quick fashion, then managed to get into Donald Cerrone's head, forcing Cerrone to fight at his pace at UFC 141 in December.

This is a really interesting matchup, because both fighters match up really well on the ground, though Diaz has a striking advantage. However, Miller's wrestling and top game, along with Diaz's propensity to be taken down, certainly throw things to his advantage. Miller has never been stopped in his career, and Diaz has only been stopped once - though that was over five years ago and outside of the UFC.

The fight comes down to which fighter can impose their gameplan and make the fight go at their pace through five rounds. Diaz will attempt to out-strike Miller, but Miller is capable of hanging with him there. Miller will be looking for a submission, but against a very ground savvy Diaz that's no easy task. It's a tough fight to predict as far as the finish is concerned, but I actually think Miller just may be able to do what no one else has yet been able to do in this one.

PREDICTION: Miller via submission in the fourth round


Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks (Welterweight)

This is a matchup of two fairly similar fighters who are at different stages in their careers. Both came into the sport with a good wrestling base, and both pride themselves more as strikers than grapplers. Koscheck is in the latter half of his career, having fought and lost for the UFC Welterweight Championship, while Hendricks is attempting to move on to his own shot at that very same title.

Koscheck had a poor performance in his last outing against a stifling wrestler in Mike Pierce, with both fighters essentially canceling each other out in a dull, close fight at UFC 143 in February. Hendricks, on the other hand, added another big finish to his resume when he knocked out Koscheck's teammate and good friend Jon Fitch at UFC 141 in December.

That 12-second knockout has been pegged as a "lucky punch" by Koscheck, who has expressed little concern with the striking of the 28-year-old. Koscheck himself has won a number of fights in his UFC career with his striking game, but is more than prepared for a wrestling and grappling battle should it come to that.

Hendricks would like nothing more than to knock Koscheck out, and hopes that his striking is underrated coming into the event. That said, he's got excellent wrestling credentials as well.

Koscheck's got a slight height advantage, and if he had shown in the past an ability to utilize his reach more effectively his four inch edge there might be a difference maker. As it stands, Koscheck tends to let himself get hit, and that could be a big problem if Hendricks finds the mark.

If Koscheck can stifle Hendricks' offense and be effective enough, he may take a decision much like he did over Pierce. However, Hendricks has 15 minutes to unleash the power he's got in his hands, and Koscheck can be dropped. I think Hendricks' title bid stays alive on Saturday.

PREDICTION: Hendricks via TKO in the second round


Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher (Middleweight)

This is such a fantastic fight. Rousimar Palhares is easily one of the most vicious and dangerous fighters in the UFC, and his ability to snatch a limb and torque it is an incredible asset. Alan Belcher has been one of the more steadily rising fighters in the middleweight division, but injuries have hampered his progression and kept him sidelined far longer than he'd have liked.

Belcher's hoping to avoid getting into a submission battle against Palhares, but he's got a sneaky ground game of his own and at the very least has the capability to get himself out of some bad spots. On that same note, Palhares isn't a slouch on his feet, either, and brings a lot of power in his tightly compacted 5'8" frame.

This is a huge, huge fight for both of these men, as neither have claim to a truly elite-level win. Palhares has stepped up against elite competition twice in his UFC career, losing both bouts to Dan Henderson and Nate Marquardt. Belcher hasn't yet had a chance to test himself against an elite-level opponent in the UFC.

Palhares is right on the cusp of that distinction, and a win for Belcher would move him to the next level and get him into a fight with another top-end opponent. For Palhares, a win would mark perhaps the best opponent he's defeated in the Octagon. It's just excellent matchmaking by Joe Silva here.

This is an immensely close fight that is going to tell a lot about where both fighters are in the UFC's middleweight division. Palhares is always capable of grabbing a limb and not letting go until it's all over, but Belcher is just an immensely well-rounded fighter. Also, Belcher will have a six-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage. If he can avoid getting into a back and forth on the ground with Palhares, I like his striking to be more than effective in keeping him ahead. If he can work that game for 15 minutes, he may not finish Palhares, but I think he'll come up with the victory.

PREDICTION: Belcher via unanimous decision


Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson (Heavyweight)

This fight was put on this card to provide fireworks. Both Barry and Johnson are heavy hitters with a number of knockout wins under their belt, and the UFC hopes to capture that type of excitement and finish to open up the Fox broadcast.

Johnson for sure hopes to give that to them, after notching an incredibly impressive knockout win over the seemingly unbreakable Joey Beltran at UFC on Fox 2 in January. That win snapped a two-fight losing streak that finished out his Strikeforce run, and he wants to keep that momentum going in the UFC.

Though Barry is known for his kickboxing game, and indeed has shown his weakness to be in the submission game, he's bound and determined to pick up a win by that method in his career. Oh, he'll stand blow for blow with anyone, even though it's backfired on him before (see: Cheick Kongo), but I have a sneaking suspicion that this just may be the fight for him to showcase his ground improvements.

Four of Johnson's five career losses have come by submission, including his last two. Though the fight may be the slugfest the UFC was hoping to see when they put the fight together, there's that feeling to this bout that Barry might try to get creative. The always entertaining and fun to watch heavyweight seemed serious about wanting to get a submission win, and this really may be the best matchup for him to do so. I favor him on the feet as well, but I'm going with a slightly different pick on this one.

PREDICTION: Barry via submission in the second round


=======Preliminary Card Quick Picks======

* Tony Ferguson over Michael Johnson via TKO in the second round
* John Dodson over Tim Elliott via TKO in the first round
* Pascal Krauss over John Hathaway via submission in the second round
* John Lineker over Louis Gaudinot via decision
* John Cholish over Danny Castillo via submission in the second round
* Pablo Garza over Dennis Bermudez via submission in the first round
* Nick Denis over Roland DeLorme via TKO in the second round
* Karlos Vemola over Mike Massenzio via submission in the third round