Penick's Take
UFC ON FUEL 2 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and predictions
Apr 13, 2012 - 5:15:21 PM UFC ON FUEL 2 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and predictions

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC returns to television on Saturday with their first event since March 2's UFC on FX 2 card, bringing an event to Fuel TV from Stockholm, Sweden. The card marks the UFC's first ever trip to Sweden, and they're bringing plenty of home country talent to the card - including one of the night's headliners in rising light heavyweight Alexander Gustafsson. The main card features six interesting matchups, including a fantastic and relevant main event between Gustafsson and Thiago Silva. This is what's on tap for tomorrow's main card:

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva (Light Heavyweight): Silva returns to action for the first time since serving his suspension for a steroid test failure last January, and his return has moved up a month as he steps in for an injured Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Since his win over Brandon Vera was overturned to a no contest due to the drug test failure, he hasn't technically won a fight since his 2009 win over Keith Jardine.

Gustafsson, meanwhile, has gone 5-1 in his UFC career, and in an interesting note, his entire UFC run has come in the time after Silva's last win. Silva's win over Jardine came in August of 2009, with Gustafsson making his UFC debut that November. Undefeated until his second UFC bout against Phil Davis, the 6'5" Gustafsson has been immensely impressive, earning two submission wins and three by (T)KO in the Octagon. His striking has been on display in his last two bouts, taking out veterans Matt Hamill and Vladimir Matyushenko, but he's extremely dangerous on the ground as well, as Cyrille Diabate and James Te Huna can attest.

Silva is a violent fighter, and his striking and grappling combination make him a very real threat to most, but he hasn't had success against a higher level of fighter in the UFC. His only losses are to Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans, but I'd put Gustafsson closer to those two fighters than he is to the Brandon Vera's and Keith Jardine's of the UFC's current roster. This is the Swede's fight to lose in front of a hometown crowd, and while I'm immensely excited for the fight, I don't see him getting beat by Silva. Gustaffson via TKO in the second round.

Brian Stann vs. Alessio Sakara (Middleweight): Stann had his momentum in the UFC's middleweight division halted quickly in November, with Chael Sonnen exposing his still lacking ground game. He had dominated striking battles against Chris Leben and Jorge Santiago early in the year, and had impressed everyone with the way he took out both fighters, but the Sonnen fight showed he still has a lot of room to grow on the ground.

So it's a good thing for him that the UFC matched him up against Sakara. Though he's a jiu jitsu black belt, he's not the type of dominating grappler that is going to put Stann on his back and keep him there. Instead, Sakara historically enjoys striking with his opponents, and that often leads to either him or his opponent getting knocked out.

That plays right into Stann's strengths, and adding the fact that Sakara is coming off a year-long injury hiatus - not to mention that this is only his third fight in the last 25 months - this is absolutely a fight Stann should win. Stann via TKO in the first round

Paulo Thiago vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (Welterweight): Siyar "The Killer" Bahadurzada is making his long-awaited debut with a major organization, coming in off a six fight winning streak over the last three years. He's been out of action for almost a year, but promises to bring his violent tendencies into the Octagon in Sweden.

Thiago halted a losing streak in his last fight, defeating David Mitchell in a somewhat underwhelming fight. His three UFC losses have all come by decision, and he's never been stopped in his career, but he could be in for a very tough fight against the UFC newcomer.

Bahadurzada has lost twice by submission, both against big name veterans in Jorge Santiago and Kazuo Misaki, but both of those fights happened in 2008. He's 16 stoppage wins to his name, including five TKO wins in this current winning streak. It's a bit of a longshot, but I'm going to go with the underdog newcomer to have an impressive debut. Bahadurzada via TKO in the first round

Dennis Siver vs. Diego Nunes (Featherweight): From 2009 to 2011, Germany's Dennis Siver put together a very impressive run in the UFC's lightweight division, winning seven of nine fights in the division. However, after his most recent loss to Donald Cerrone, Siver opted to drop down to the featherweight division. In his first cut to 145 lbs., he required additional time to make the weight, as he came in a pound heavy on his first attempt.

For Nunes, this will be the second time in three fights that he's welcomed someone making their debut in the division, having done the same against Kenny Florian last summer. However, that fight led to his first loss in the UFC. He's got fast hands and a solid ground game, but he hasn't shown off his finishing abilities under the Zuffa banner, going to decision in eight straight bouts.

This fight kind of comes down to how badly the cut has affected Siver. If it has drained him, Nunes is absolutely going to work him over in the cardio and speed department, but if he's alright his skills may translate really well when he's not the smaller fighter in the cage.

This is going to be an interesting, close, and competitive fight, but I'm going to lean towards the more established fighter edging things out. Siver via decision

DaMarques Johnson vs. John Maguire (Welterweight): England's Maguire made his UFC debut last year, moving his winning streak to six with a decision over Justin Edwards. TUF 9's Johnson is coming off a highly impressive one punch knockout of Clay Harvison at the UFC on Fox 1 event last November.

That win moved Johnson to 4-3 in seven fights in the UFC, and was one of his most impressive wins in the Octagon. Maguire's skills are more grappling-based, and that's an area Johnson can hold his ground in. Ultimately, I like Johnson's striking game here, and think he'll pick up second consecutive win. Johnson via TKO in the second round.

Brad Pickett vs. Damacio Page (Bantamweight): Pickett was dominated in shocking fashion in his last bout, getting knocked around and submitted by Renan Barao at UFC 138 last November. Page has been out of action a year, having lost for the second time to Brian Bowles by submission last March.

Pickett's got speed, striking, and submission skills, while Page has had trouble with submission fighters in the past. Pickett simply ran up against a better fighter in Barao his last time out, but I think he's got an edge on Page, and I think he'll get back on track on Saturday. Pickett via submission in the first round.