Penick's Take
PENICK'S UFC 144 PREVIEW: Main card breakdown and fight predictions for "Edgar vs. Henderson" card in Japan
Feb 25, 2012 - 4:30:47 PM PENICK'S UFC 144 PREVIEW: Main card breakdown and fight predictions for "Edgar vs. Henderson" card in Japan

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC returns to Japan on Saturday night with a 12-fight card from the Saitama Super Arena. This card marks the first UFC event under Zuffa ownership to come to Japan, and it just may be one of the most stacked fight cards they've put together. There is a ton to like about this card, starting right up at the top, so let's take a look at what's in store for the event this weekend:

Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson (Lightweight Championship)

The under-appreciated Lightweight Champion takes on a surging and deserving challenger in what is, on paper, one of the most exciting matchups in the history of this particular title. There are so many intangibles possessed by both Edgar and Henderson that trying to predict how this fight is going to play out may just be a futile exercise, but let's see if we can work our way through this one anway.

Edgar's "speed over size" game allows him to pop in and out with crisp strikes, setting the pace against any of his opponents. He's added some power to that striking game over the last couple of years as well, as evidenced by his fantastic finish of Gray Maynard back in October. He's also shown immense heart in the cage and the ability to survive through adversity.

All of these are skills mirrored by his opponent in Henderson, though Henderson has the size to go along with his speed. His striking game, while not the most advanced in the division, is more than serviceable, his grappling game is very good - both offensively and defensively - and he is impossible to finish. His ridiculous flexibility has allowed him to survive some seriously dangerous spots inside of the cage, and he's got cardio for days as well.

There's no question that both of these fighters can put forth a full effort for 25 minutes if this fight goes all five rounds, but it's hard to really picture how this fight is going to play out through that 25 minutes. Will Henderson be able to crack Edgar the way Gray Maynard did in the first round of both UFC 125 and UFC 136? Will Edgar be able to land that crushing blow to Henderson and follow up? Will either fighter try to concentrate on their grappling and attempt submissions? Will either of them have any success?

This is such a toss-up because both fighters are immensely well rounded, and against most other opponents have the ability to decisively defeat them. However, they have so many similarities and so many things that they are capable of delivering in the cage that it's a matter of what they attempt to concentrate on.

While Henderson looked incredible through three fights in 2011, Edgar was increasingly impressive as well in his two fights with Gray Maynard. I can't have any confidence in the pick I'm going with here, because both of them are equally likely to do what needs to be done to win this fight, but I'm going to give the Champion credit and say he'll take three of the five rounds on Saturday night to hold onto his title.

PREDICTION: Edgar via decision

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Ryan Bader (Light Heavyweight)

Jackson is coming off a loss to Jon Jones in their title fight last September, suffering a submission loss for the first time in over a decade. He now returns to Japan after begging the UFC to give him a fight on this card, and has been telling anyone who will listen that he's out to put on a show for his "favorite fans."

Ryan Bader comes into what is one of the biggest fights of his career off a rebound win last November, where he knocked out Jason Brilz in just over a minute to snap a two-fight losing streak.

Bader's stock dropped massively last year after his loss to Tito Ortiz, perhaps rightfully so considering that's the only win Ortiz has had in the last five years. However, that shocking performance aside, his only other loss came against now Champion Jones, and he is still a very skilled wrestler with some extremely heavy hands.

Likewise, that's just the type of fighter Rampage is, except he's essentially abandoned his wrestling game and he's a better striker overall.

The smart thing for Bader to do in this fight is use his wrestling, beat up Rampage in the clinch and try to make the fight take place on his terms. If he stands across from Jackson and decides to simply throw punches, it could potentially be a very bad night for him. Of course, he's also capable of landing the fight ending blow, but considering that's all Jackson will be out to do on Saturday night, mixing other elements of the game in are what Bader needs to do to pull off the upset.

I just don't know if we're going to see Rampage at his best in this fight. Bader is dangerous in a number of areas, and if he fights smart, it's very easy to see him pulling off the upset. Jackson needs to pressure throughout and land strikes, but I don't know that he'll be able to do that. I'm going to lean towards the upset.

PREDICTION: Bader via decision

Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo (Heavyweight)

Does this one need any technical breakdown? I think not. This is going to be sloppy, it's going to be violent, it will either end quickly or it will end in one fighter, or both, gassing out badly before a finish; but it's also going to be an immense amount of fun. Hunt has kept nostalgic fans happy in his last two fights, knocking out Chris Tuchscherer and taking a decision over Ben Rothwell to snap a six-fight losing streak, and he returns to the country where he had spent his entire pre-UFC career in this fight.

Kongo wants to get into the title picture in the heavyweight division, and a win here would make him unbeaten in his last five.

This really comes down to whether or not Hunt can land the knockout blow on Cheick Kongo in the first round or not. If not, Kongo will either stop him in the first round or wear him out to take a decision. There's not a lot of in between in this matchup, as Hunt hasn't been stopped with strikes outside of a bout with Melvin Manhoef. In 2012, Kongo is the better fighter, and he's shown he can survive some very rough stretches in a fight with his comeback against Pat Barry last year, so I think he'll keep himself on track here.

PREDICTION: Kongo via TKO in the first round

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields (Welterweight)

Jake Shields had a really bad 2011. He lost for the first time in over five years when he dropped a decision to Georges St-Pierre, and then he was knocked out by Jake Ellenberger just weeks after the passing of his father. He's taken a few months off, and now he hopes to kick off 2012 on a much more positive note.

Yoshihiro Akiyama has also not had a lot of positives in his professional career over the last couple of years. "Sexyama" has lost three straight fights, with his sole UFC victory coming in a somewhat controversial split decision over Alan Belcher in his UFC debut. He has finally taken the advice of many in dropping to the welterweight division, and it will be his judo and striking games against the American Jiu Jitsu of Shields.

I don't think the size and striking factor will be much of an issue in this fight, though. Shields has fought at middleweight himself, and was quite successful against some solid competition. His striking is a bit ugly, but it's capable enough to set up what he needs to in order to bring Akiyama to the ground.

More than likely, this fight will be a ground battle. Akiyama is adept in his submission game, and his grappling is really solid as well, but Shields knows how to work his top control game really well, and if he can get Akiyama on his back he'll be at a big advantage. Akiyama certainly can win this fight, but I like Shields to bounce back with a good performance.

PREDICTION: Shields via decision

Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch (Middleweight)

Anderson Silva made Yushin Okami look like he didn't belong in the same cage as him at UFC 134 last summer, but despite that loss, Okami is still a force at 185 lbs. Boetsch has looked really good since moving down to the middleweight division, bullying Kendall Grove and Nick Ring to decisions, but Okami's a different beast entirely.

Okami's only ever been bullied around once in his UFC career, and that was in his fight with Chael Sonnen, whom he's since added as a training partner. Okami's a tough grappler, and he's got a size advantage on Boetsch as well. He's not going to be picked apart in the clinch the way Grove and Ring were, and he's a favorite in this fight for a reason.

Boetsch isn't going to go lightly, and he's going to make Okami work for 15 minutes to earn the win, but Okami should be able to implement his gameplan in this one, and I see him getting back on track here.

PREDICTION: Okami via decision

Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski (Featherweight)

Hioki has long been talked about as one of the top featherweights in the world, but like many fighters who have come into the UFC after a lengthy time spent in Japan, he looked less than impressive in his Octagon debut.

Though he defeated George Roop by decision at UFC 137, it was a fight that easily could have gone to Roop in that split decision. It was just a rough performance, and that could have either been due to Hioki being overrated, Roop making him look worse than he is, or a combination of both.

Regardless, if he's going to challenge for the UFC Featherweight Championship, he's going to have to get past a very difficult opponent in Palaszewski.

The Polish WEC vet has had a bit of an up and down career, but it's been on the upswing over the last few years. He dropped to 145 lbs. for his UFC debut in October, and made a statement by only the second person to knock Tyson Griffin out cold, and he's got the power in his strikes to end any fighter's night early.

This is a fight Hioki is supposed to win in the eyes of many, especially if he's the fighter that many believe him to be. Was his performance against Roop due to Octagon jitters? Or is he another example of a Japanese fighter faltering in the North American scene? Regardless, I like Palaszewski's chances, and I'll lean towards the upset in this one.

PREDICTION: Palaszewski via decision

Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon (Lightweight)

Ben Henderson is fighting for the UFC Lightweight Title in the main event of this card, and it's a slot Anthony Pettis thought he'd have been in already after defeating Henderson in the last ever WEC fight in 2010. Pettis was originally going to get a title fight before Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard fought to a draw at UFC 125, and then his momentum was halted entirely when he was out-wrestled by Clay Guida last June.

He's since bounced back with a smart performance against Jeremy Stephens, but he needs a big win in this fight to put himself back in the spotlight.

Joe Lauzon is relishing his underdog status, hoping to pull off a similar upset to the one he managed last October when he submitted Melvin Guillard. The five and a half year UFC vet is immensely dangerous on the ground, and presents a good challenge for Pettis as he tries to prove himself worthy of title consideration.

Lauzon's immensely skilled on the ground, and presents some challenges there for Pettis, but he's not the striker Pettis is, doesn't have the cardio that Pettis has, and can't keep the pace with "Showtime" for this entire fight. He's capable of pulling of the shocking upset, but I like Pettis in a big way to get back on track in this fight.

PREDICTION: Pettis via TKO in the second round

=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

* Eiji Mitsuoka over Takanori Gomi via submission in the third round
* Vaughan Lee over Kid Yamamoto via decision
* Riki Fukuda over Steve Cantwell via decision
* Takeya Mizugaki over Chris Cariaso via TKO in the second round
* Tiequan Zhang over Issei Tamura via decision

=====MMATorch Confidence and Betting Game Picks=====

12 - Pettis - TKO RD 2
11 - Okami - DEC
10- Fukuda - DEC
9- Mizugaki - TKO RD 2
8- Shields - DEC
7- Bader - DEC
6- Palaszewski - DEC
5- Kongo - TKO RD 1
4- Edgar - DEC
3- Mitsuoka - SUB RD 3
2- Lee - DEC
1- Zhang - DEC

$100 on Bader
$300 on Palaszewski
$400 on Pettis
$200 parlay on Pettis and Palaszewski