Hyden's Take
HYDEN BLOG: The Past vs. The Present, and the different outcomes facing Daniel Cormier in the UFC
Jan 16, 2013 - 9:40:56 AM HYDEN BLOG: The Past vs. The Present, and the different outcomes facing Daniel Cormier in the UFC

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By: Frank Hyden, MMATorch contributor

I was on the MMATorch Forums this week (which you should join if you haven't, it's a lot of fun) and the topic of whether B.J. Penn should retire or not came up. I think that B.J. should continue to fight if he wants to, but only if he realizes that his days of being a top contender are over. He can be a gatekeeper guy that's used to test up-and-coming fighters, but he will never contender for a title again.

Time has passed "The Prodigy" by; he's from a different era. It's much the same way that the best NFL team from the 80's would struggle with or lose to (depending on the matchup) an average team from today. I don't mean that as an insult. Medical technology, advances in training methods, athletes getting bigger and faster, being able to study the past to learn what works and what doesn't, as well as having the goal of trying to better the all-time greats combines to create this scenario.

MMA doesn't have as long a history as the NFL does, but the same applies here. Guys who enjoyed great success in the past paved the way for the athletes now. Guys like Matt Hughes, B.J. Penn, Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Rich Franklin, Randy Couture, etc., etc. made it possible for guys like Jon Jones, Benson Henderson, Cain Velasquez, Jose Aldo, etc. to exist.

That's why I hate comparing eras, because it's not fair to the guys who came before. Without them, the stuff happening now wouldn't be possible. When the UFC first started running events there was a lot of question as to what would work and what wouldn't in a fight scenario. Now, you literally have years and years of tape to look at, strategies to analyze, and training methods to improve upon. The guys today have learned from the fighters of the past. Fighters in the future will take what the guys of today do, and vastly improve upon that, and so on and such forth.

It may sound like an insult when I say that Royce Gracie in his prime would lose to a mid-level UFC fighter in 2013, but I really don't mean it that way. It's like when a parent wants their kid to do better and to be more successful than they were in life. Royce should take great pride in knowing that he would lose if time travel existed and his prime self ever fought someone like Rory MacDonald today. He helped create Rory, and should take pride in knowing that he had a little bit to do with the success of today's fighters. All the past MMA greats should take pride in the success of today's fighters.

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Daniel Cormier called out Frank Mir after beating Dion Staring at the final Strikeforce event last week. Mir has said that he's open to it and that he'll be glad to welcome Cormier to the UFC, and he'll do just that at UFC on Fox 7. I don't think Mir will be quite so glad after the fight, though, as Cormier will likely destroy him. I've been a Mir critic for a long time as I think he's vastly overrated and the byproduct of an incredibly weak heayvweight division.

The heavyweight division is getting a little better now, and that's what will lead to Mir's downfall. To be clear, I don't think that Cormier is elite, he's still got some work to do. He doesn't have years and years left, though, and I think that's the main thing that will stop him from being elite. However, I do believe that Cormier is head and shoulders above Mir. Quite frankly, Cormier couldn't ask for a better opponent in his UFC debut. He's going to maul Frank Mir and look like a monster.

Cormier also said that he would like to fight UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jon Jones after he beats Mir. Let's just assume that Cormier can make the weight cut to 205lbs. He obviously believes that he can so I'll take him at his word for now. He's had issues in the past, but he wouldn't suggest this unless he thought he could do it.

The problem is that Cormier would be entering another galaxy. The heavyweight division has never seen an athlete like Jon Jones. Cormier has never faced someone who even comes close to being like Jones. Jones has incredible reach. He has tremendous quickness. He will come at you from all angles. Jones has also showed an amazing ability to avoid the takedown. This is not a favorable fight for Cormier at all. I can't think of a single area in which Cormier would have the advantage. Wrestling? Maybe, but I think Jones would avoid his takedowns. Striking? No, Jones has a huge reach advantage, but even if he didn't he's clearly the vastly superior striker. Submissions? No, Jones has the edge there too.

I've made no secret of how little a chance I give Chael Sonnen when he fights Jones in a few months. If I had to put it into numbers I would say we're talking about maybe a 2% chance. I would give Cormier a slightly better chance, but we're still talking maybe 5%. Jon Jones is the second-best fighter in the world, and I don't believe Cormier is even the second-best heavyweight in the world. He'll look fantastic when he destroys Frank Mir. Some will say that he has a good chance to beat Jones. Then the fight will happen, and Jones will prove once again how good he is as he dispatches Cormier and moves on to his next opponent.


Comments and suggestions can be e-mailed to me at hydenfrank@gmail.com