Amadi's Take
AMADI: Fighter Injury - Not Oversaturation - to Blame for UFC's Decline in 2012
Sep 13, 2012 - 12:05:42 PM AMADI: Fighter Injury - Not Oversaturation - to Blame for UFC's Decline in 2012

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By: Jason Amadi, MMATorch Columnist

Following the success of the first season of the Ultimate Fighter, the UFC saw a long period of exponential growth. For a while, almost anything branded with the letters "UFC" meant guaranteed success. There was a time where the UFC could enter virtually any market in the United States or Canada and almost assuredly do big business at the gate. There was a time where the absolute worst the UFC could draw on pay-per-view was somewhere in the neighborhood of 300,000 buys. Unfortunately for everyone, that period of growth stopped cold about two years ago.

Just to be clear, when I say the UFC product isn't as hot as it was two years ago, that isn't just my opinion; it's a matter of fact.

In 2010, the UFC offered 15 pay-per-view events and sold roughly 9,305,000 buys total (the record for pay-per-views sold by one company in a calendar year). The UFC is offering 13 pay-per-views this year (thanks to the cancellation of UFC 151) and they aren't going to approach anything near that. It isn't quite an apples to apples comparison because of their transition from Spike TV to the Fox family of networks and the timeslot changes that have come along with that, but television ratings are generally down as well.

The sport of mixed martial arts is simply in a state of decline. I think all metrics across the board actually support that idea.

A lot of people like to attribute the UFC's declining business to oversaturation, and while that is a very real issue right now, the most significant cause of their troubles across all platforms is unquestionably the rate of fighter injury.

The UFC was able to smash pay-per-view records in years past because of their ability to put on "must see" fights month after month, year after year. Their brand actually became synonymous with quality and consistency in a way that was almost unheard of for a single fight promotion.

Again, in 2010 the UFC was able to put together Georges St-Pierre vs. Dan Hardy one month, Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia the next month, Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua II the month after that, Quinton Jackson vs. Rashad Evans the month after that, Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin the month after that, Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin the month after that, and then Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen the month after that.

Almost all of those events were supported by decent undercards and some of them actually had more than one title fight on them. Some cards later in the year did better and some did worse, but that was an absolutely incredible seven month stretch that was able to build tons of valuable momentum for the UFC brand.

These days the UFC is undoubtedly finding that kind of momentum hard to come by because of how often their fight cards are shuffled and reshuffled as a result of injury. 2012 started off well enough for the UFC with a lot of their events going as planned and doing solid numbers as a result; however, as spring turned to summer, we just saw event after event nosedive in quality because of injuries.

UFC 147, 148, and 149 were all ravaged by injury, and the UFC was forced to cancel UFC 151 as a result of injury (and Jon Jones' refusal to accept a new opponent). The monetary loss the UFC suffered as a result of the cancellation is rumored to be around $20 million.

What I found particularly troubling about the UFC 151 cancellation wasn't so much that half the MMA community supported Jon Jones' decision not to fight, but rather that it was seen as the most prudent course of action and a real sign of things to come.

In fact, a lot of people said that the days where fighters like Chuck Liddell and Rich Franklin would step up for the UFC were over and that MMA had "evolved" to a point where athletes the caliber of Jon Jones would begin to put their needs ahead of the needs of the UFC.

Well, if any of that is true, then we should probably all prepare for the size and scope of mixed martial arts to decrease even more than it already has.

As I said before, MMA is in a state of decline. Big revenue years like 2010 are contingent upon big fights, momentum, and brand strength; three areas in which the UFC is currently lacking. In years past, a lot of fans didn't even need to look too closely at UFC cards before buying them, because of what the brand meant at the time. These days, it's hard to even look at a stacked UFC lineup and not imagine it all falling apart a few weeks beforehand.

The UFC 151 cancellation reinforced the lesson that the last two years have taught MMA fans: fights will fall apart and there's nothing the UFC or its athletes can do about it.

For the good of the sport, every so often fighters are going to have to bite the bullet and save shows the way UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva saved (or at least has attempted to save) UFC 153.

I don't want to come off overly dramatic, but right now MMA is a bit of a sinking ship. Ironically, while professional boxing is currently seeing something of a renaissance, it's the UFC that's currently unable to put on fights where "the best fight the best," and quite frankly, it isn't for a lack of trying.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter @JasonAmadi and direct your "Ask the Torch" questions to askmmatorch@gmail.com (I may have been given the wrong address here a few times).