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By Frank Hyden, MMATorch contributor Undercard:
Dave Kaplan vs. George Roop- Roop by Decision
Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Brandon Wolff- Yoshida by TKO in the 2nd round
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Andre Gusmao- Soszynski by Submission in the 2nd round
Phillipe Nover vs. Kyle Bradley- Nover by Decision
Pat Barry vs. Tim Hague- Hague by TKO in the 2nd round
Main Card:
Brock Larson vs. Chris Wilson- Once again, Brock Larson isn't scheduled for the main card. I'm listing his match under the Main Card because, to me, Larson is one of the best things going in the Welterweight division. The guy has some sick moves and consistently finishes his opponents in the 1st round. Out of his 22 wins that I have info on (3 of his wins don't list the round he won in), 17 of those have come in the 1st round. That's a 77% finish rate in the 1st. Larson also has a 68% win by submission rate. He's an animal that jumps you at the bell and doesn't let up. Wilson's a good fighter who's had some success against some UFC veterans. However, with all due respect to Wilson, I don't think he stands much of a chance in this one. Larson is just too tough and too good. I think the Brock steamroller continues on.
Prediction- Larson by Submission in the 1st round
Sean Sherk vs. Frank Edgar- This is a bit of a mismatch in terms of fight experience. Sherk has over 35 fights while Edgar has 10. The reason it's only a bit of a mismatch, though, is that Edgar has fought several quality opponents in his 10 fights. Sherk has only lost 3 times, to Matt Hughes (in '03), to Georges St. Pierre (in '05), and B.J. Penn (in '08). However, Edgar's only lost 1 time himself, to Gray Maynard (also in '08). This could be an exciting fight. Both guys go the distance a lot, but Edgar has won Fight of the Night twice. I think both guys will look to push the pace and make the other fight off of his heels. Over 60% of Sherk's wins have been by KO or submission. Edgar has gone to decision 6 of 10 times, one being a loss, but his fights are usually exciting as he fights his way to victory. I have to give Sherk the edge here, I think he's going to come out and try to re-establish himself as a contender in the Lightweight division.
Prediction- Sherk by Decision
Chael Sonnen vs. Dan Miller- I'm sure Sonnen would like us all to forget the stupid comments he made a few months ago when he proclaimed that he was better than Anderson Silva. Sonnen has a track record of making dumb comments. However, Chael has proven that he's a good fighter. He's a few levels below great, but he usually wins the fights he's supposed to. It's the fights that he's the underdog or even money in that give him problems. Sonnen's a good wrestler but that's about it. Dan Miller is a good wrestler as well as having good submission skills. All of Miller's wins have either come via decision after 3 rounds or within the first 3 minutes of the 1st round, with the exception of 1 win that took about 3.5 minutes of the 1st round. Over 50% of Miller's wins have come by submission. About 70% of Sonnen's losses have been by submission. This fight should follow the pattern of Miller's career so far, go to decision or early submission win for Miller. I'll give Sonnen the benefit of the doubt here and say he'll last the whole way.
Prediction- Miller by Decision
Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs. Drew McFedries- McFedries is known for short fights. Whether he wins or loses, the fight usually doesn't go past the 2 minute mark, let alone the first round. McFedries has had 7 fights in the UFC. All 7 have ended in the first round, with only 2 going past 2 minutes long. His entrances usually take longer than his matches. McFedries is 3-4 in the UFC, though his losses have been to Martin Kampmann, Patrick Cote, Mike Massenzio, and Thales Leites. Foupa-Pokam is just coming off of a decision loss to Denis Kang. That fight was 5 weeks ago. Sometimes you have to consider that a negative, other times it's a positive. In this case I think it's a positive, Foupa-Pokam needs to be ready for the initial whirlwind that is McFedries. This has the makings of a very short and explosive fight. I really like McFedries, but I have to go with Foupa-Pokam getting the early win here.
Prediction- Foupa-Pokam by TKO in the 1st round
Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra- I don't know how much Hughes has left in his tank. He's already stated that this is his last fight so I'm sure he'd like to go out with a win. Hughes has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, though 2 of those losses have been to Georges St. Pierre. This fight will only be Serra's 3rd in over 2 years, while it'll be the 4th for Hughes in approximately the same time period. The rust factor should be roughly the same for both fighters, so this should be decided on who wants it more. This is also a grudge match of sorts, with each fighter having real dislike for the other. If this were the Matt Hughes from 4 or 5 years ago, I would pick him in a romp, but Hughes has lost a step or three. Serra should be able to utilize his BJJ to thwart the ground-and-pound of Hughes. This should be a really close fight. I think Serra comes away with the close decision.
Prediction- Serra by Decision
Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida- There's a fair amount of people who have a problem with Rashad Evans and his antics inside the cage. I'm not a fan of those antics myself, but Rashad backs it up inside the octagon. If he were some bum, I'd want him to stifle it, but he's a fantastic fighter. He's earned the right to act however he wants, even if some think he looks like a fool doing so. Rashad equals results. At the same time, though, if Rashad starts losing he'll have to scale back his antics. People will tolerate a lot more as long as you're winning.
The fight itself should be really good. There's a large part of me that wants to say that Rashad will steamroll Lyoto easily. However, I have to give Machida more credit than that. He's a good fighter, in his own right. I don't think it'll be an easy fight for Rashad, but I do believe that he'll come away with the win. Rashad is a great wrestler so it won't be easy for Machida to take him down. Rashad is also an excellent striker. Machida finally busted out his striking skills in the UFC in his last fight, knocking out Thiago Silva. Machida's a good striker, but I still have to give the edge to Rashad there. If Machida can get the fight to the ground I think he wins. However, I think Rashad will keep it standing and get the eventual TKO.
Prediction- Evans by TKO in the 3rd round
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