...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!
By: Jason Bent, MMATorch Columnist Junie Browning vs. Cole Miller
The first fight of the main televised portion of the broadcast is a lightweight showcase bout for "TUF" alum Junie Browning, as he looks to make sure that no one has forgotten about him as we prepare to meet the new fighters who living in a fishbowl for "The Ultimate Fighter 9." This is not to suggest that Cole Miller is a slouch or anything less than a solid fighter, but he just is not on the same level as Browning in terms of raw talent and potential. Junie Browning controls his destiny, and so long as he remains somewhat focused while making sure not to overlook anyone, the sky is the limit for this polarizing personality who is poised to be one of the lightweight division’s brightest stars.
Junie Browning came to be known by way of his time spent on "The Ultimate Fighter," and for reasons which had nothing to do with his abilities inside of the Octagon. Instead it was his alcohol abuse and reckless behavior which became what his calling card on the show. His temper and propensity for glass throwing trumped his fighting abilities and seemed to put his dreams of a UFC career at risk, but he was allowed to remain in the house; and surprisingly still he had a chance to win it all before falling short against Efrain Escudero in a very uninspiring performance, which showed more a lack of commitment rather than a lack of talent.
Browning took on Dave Kaplan at "The Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale" and not only got the submission victory but also took home a nice $25,000 bonus for the bout being declared "Fight of the Night." Kaplan more than gave a tremendous showing of himself, but it was Browning who stole the show by finally showcasing some of what was expected from him all along. Junie looked comfortable for once and in great physical shape, which certainly proved that he had put the bottle away and taken his lunch pail with him to work each day while training as a part of the Xtreme Couture team. Being away from the watchful eye of the television cameras and surrounded by top flight fighters who will take no guff has been the best thing for him, and as such it was Browning who got a second chance to earn a first impression, and the chance to continue his winning ways against Cole Miller.
Cole Miller has won three of his four bouts under the UFC banner, and has shown marked improvement in each bout since bursting onto the scene as a member of "The Ultimate Fighter 5." Miller was defeated by Joe Lauzon in the quarter-finals of "TUF 5," but this loss was considered somewhat controversial due to his having been affected by an illegal blow which may very well have led to Lauzon’s victory. It is highly possible that Lauzon could have still gone on to defeat him, but it cannot be disputed that he was at a disadvantage following the strike as he appeared to have not fully recovered once the fight had resumed. Miller followed this up by making short work of Andy Wang at the finale, and of all prospects from this particular season it was imagined that his future could be among the brightest.
Miller has since gone on to defeat Leonard Garcia and Jorge Gurgel while suffering a TKO loss to Jeremy Stephens between the aforementioned bouts. Miller took home "Submission of the Night" honors for his triangle choke of Gurgel at UFC 86, and he looks to try for the same as he meets the dangerous Junie Browning at "UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann."
For Junie Browning to win this fight he is going to have to remain composed and not give in to the desire to simply put on a show for the crowd. Browning’s footwork has always been one of his strong suits, and his ability to control the ring and dictate the pace is what will favor him in this bout. Miller is the sort of fighter who will be more than glad to stand on a dime with Browning and slug it out, but it is Browning who has the quicker hands, more efficient strikes and more power behind the blows. Browning will not be looking to submit Miller from the onset and will probably instead be looking for a highlight reel finish, but if he can force Miller to fight his fight it should be his victory by way of a unanimous decision.
For Cole Miller to win this fight it is going to take him being in control of the action and having improved even more since his victory over Gurgel. In recent weeks he has made comments in reference to Browning’s ground game, and while I believe most comments were made in order to hype the fight it is a fact that Miller’s ground game will be the best that Browning has faced, and if this fight remains on the ground for long it will provide Miller with his best chance to win. Miller can ill afford to lose focus and allow the machismo to force him to slug it out and leave openings for Browning.
Miller is an American Top Team product and is said to be 100% following a knee injury which has kept him on the sidelines for almost a year. This fight is his to win on the ground if he can take advantage of Browning’s enthusiasm and remain calm while using his opponent’s aggression against him. This is prime time for Miller to shine but all of the pressure is on Browning, and this in and of itself gives Miller a slight advantage, in that Browning can be the show and he can simply go to work in this bout and not worry about the crowd at all. A submission victory is Miller’s best bet and can be achieved if Browning makes one mistake or loses focus on Miller while listening more to the crowd than his own corner.
-Bent’s Prediction: Junie Browning by Unanimous Decision-
All of Miller’s talk has been pre-fight hype and I really do not see him coming into this bout to expose Browning’s ground game and I simply do not see him getting much of a chance to do that either. If Browning is in great shape it is likely that he will be the one to dictate the pace and use his footwork to neutralize both Miller’s reach as well as the chances of getting himself in a precarious position on the ground. I see this one being a stand-up bout and believe that Browning will be able to get under Miller’s skin enough for him to forget about what he should be doing, and instead try to chase Junie around for three rounds. Miller is capable of fighting a much better fight than the one I see him bringing against Browning, and I see him losing a unanimous decision to "The Lunatik." Browning was an ass on "The Ultimate Fighter," but Junie will be anything but a fool on April 1st as he takes the first step towards climbing the lightweight ladder.
Tyson Griffin vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Our second bout of the evening again shall take place in the lightweight division, and on paper it looks to be a match-up on par with that of the first bout as Griffin heads into this one as a strong favorite. Griffin is coming off of a loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 90, but it should be noted that he faced a much improved Sherk who could have spoiled the night for virtually any other lightweight fighter, and still it was Griffin giving a great showing of himself as the two men took home "Fight of the Night" bonus money for their troubles. Rafael dos Anjos is coming off of a brutal KO loss to Jeremy Stephens at UFC 91, and it is likely that dos Anjos’ jaw has never been the same following the uppercut from Stephens in November. Both men are looking to rebound from a loss, but dos Anjos is facing an uphill battle as this one looks to be tailor-made for Griffin to once again show that he is one of the top lightweights in the UFC.
Tyson Griffin is in many ways like a younger version of Sean Sherk, in the way that he fights with an endless supply of energy and with such aggression. The one knock against him has been his inability to finish fights, but Griffin is indeed a fighter who fights to the finish and beyond and this motor serves him well. Everything begins with wrestling for Griffin, and it is with this strong base that he most resembles Sherk in that he is a wrestler in every way, but one who is not content to merely lay atop his opponent while doing little more than maintaining control. Griffin has been in control of his UFC career as he has notched victories over the likes of Clay Guida, Thiago Tavares, Gleison Tibau, and Marcus Aurelio with the losses to Sean Sherk and Frank Edgar serving as the only blemishes on his record to this point. Griffin has been in four fights which have earned him a "Fight of the Night" bonus and earned "Submission of the Night" for his submission of David Lee in his UFC debut at UFC 60. The climb back up towards the top of the division begins against dos Anjos, and this is his fight to win.
Rafael dos Anjos is known primarily for having been on the wrong end of a Jeremy Stephens uppercut at UFC 91. Words cannot convey the sheer brutality of this knockout, and the replay has since been aired numerous times to the same reaction from fans who, even after seeing it once, will still groan upon seeing the punch land. Rafael dos Anjos has eleven victories on his resume with six of them coming by way of submission and one by knockout against only three losses. The Brazilian has fought against mostly nondescript opponents in his home country and his UFC debut against Stephens of course resulted in him being disconnected from reality for a few minutes, but against Griffin he gets a chance to rebound while also getting a second chance to make a better first impression on UFC fans who only know him as the guy who got knocked out by that vicious uppercut.
For Griffin to win this bout it is going to take him not experiencing a letdown of sorts following his loss to Sherk and the restraint to not fight down to the level of his opponent. This should be his bout to win, and while an upset is highly unlikely, Griffin should still treat this bout as if he is facing the very best in the world. Stephens was not dominating dos Anjos before the knockout blow landed and dos Anjos is not just a walk over opponent for Griffin. That being said it should still be all Griffin from the opening bell until the final one as he out hustles, out wrestles and outworks dos Anjos on his way to earning what will appear to have been a very easy decision victory.
For dos Anjos to win this bout it will take all that he did right against Stephens while avoiding that which he did wrong, which of course led to his head being spun around on his neck as if it were on a rotisserie. Everything that dos Anjos can do should be able to be either done or neutralized by Griffin, but upsets do happen and dos Anjos certainly has a chance at pulling off such a thing if Griffin takes the night off by looking past him. The best chance for dos Anjos to win will not come by way of the scorecards or by way of knockout, but rather submission; and since this fight will be contested on the ground it is possible for him to have some openings against a very aggressive Griffin. One mistake from Griffin could lead to the Brazilian fighter becoming known more for something other than having been knocked out, and it is this and this alone that presents his best chance to win as he is a decided underdog in this one.
-Bent’s Prediction: Tyson Griffin by Unanimous Decision-
Griffin has been known for his inability to finish, and I feel strongly that this will still be his hallmark after having gotten past dos Anjos. Rafael dos Anjos will be fighting from his heels for the most part and looking to avoid rather than engage, and this is why Griffin’s aggression will allow him to wrestle his way to a unanimous decision victory. Vinko Bogataj became famous for being the ski jumper shown crashing on ABC’s Wide World of Sports as the face of "the agony of defeat," and Rafael dos Anjos has fast become his MMA counterpart following his UFC 91 defeat. He will probably not go down in similar fashion in this one, but defeat will still be agonizing following what I imagine to be a unanimous decision loss to the rebounding Tyson Griffin.
Ryan Bader vs. Carmelo Marrero
Ryan Bader is coming off of a victory over Vinny Magalhaes at "The Ultimate Fighter 8" finale which earned him the six figure contract and the title of "The Ultimate Fighter" in the light heavyweight division of this edition of the franchise. Bader was a heavy favorite throughout the season but never really came close to showing off his true potential until his victory over Magalhaes. To say he had underachieved is an understatement considering his snooze fest of a victory over Eliot Marshall which put him into the finals. In facing Carmelo Marrero he is going against an opponent who is more than capable of giving him a tough fight, and a fighter who is certainly capable of upsetting him when the two meet on April 1st. This is a somewhat compelling fight, but it should be a showcase for one of last season’s winners leading into the very first episode of the ninth edition.
Ryan Bader is a highly decorated amateur wrestler who rose to prominence while at Arizona State University and has only been practicing mixed martial arts for a couple of years. He is a naturally gifted athlete with a strong work ethic who seems to be improving overnight with the help of those he trains alongside at Arizona Combat Sports such as Thales Leites, Jamie Varner, and C.B. Dollaway. He is undefeated in his young MMA career, with no win bigger than that which he notched over Magalhaes in spectacular fashion by scoring a first round TKO, and he faces the next test of his career when he takes on Marrero.
Carmelo Marrero also wrestled on the collegiate level but his amateur wrestling credentials pale in comparison to those of Bader. He enjoyed some minor success in qualifying for the national tournament at heavyweight, but even though this is nothing to sneer at it is nowhere near the neighborhood of Bader’s success. One thing that is for certain though is that Marrero is a fighter, and one only has to look to his childhood battle with cancer to get a better understanding of the mental strength that this man must possess having dealt with something such as this. He jumped headfirst into MMA following his collegiate wrestling career and notched several victories on smaller shows before getting his opportunity in the UFC. He began his UFC career as a heavyweight and scored a split decision victory over Cheick Kongo before being submitted by Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 66 and deciding to move down to the light heavyweight ranks in hopes of better success. He faced Wilson Gouveia at UFC 71 and again found himself being submitted in the first round, but he has since rattled off four wins in a row and now has found himself back in the UFC, if for only one more night.
For Ryan Bader to win this fight it will take his athleticism and power as he is seemingly more gifted than Marrero in every single category, save for jiu-jitsu. While Marrero does possess some submission ability it is likely that he is not going to be in any position to even venture an attempt as Bader should not only be able to out wrestle his opponent but overpower him throughout their bout. Bader’s wrestling ability and strength should prevent Marrero from gaining even a momentary advantage on the ground, and it should be Bader’s punching power that brings him to victory in this showcase bout. Bader knocked out Magalhaes with a clipping shot, and if he can land a blow even close to that one and land it flush, this one should be over early enough that Bader can get himself a shower and tune into the season premiere of "The Ultimate Fighter 9."
For Carmelo Marrero to win this bout it will take a letdown of sorts as far as Bader’s motivation, and it will take mistakes being made and the ability to capitalize upon them. Marrero is at a decided disadvantage in every single category save for his jiu-jitsu, but submitting Bader will prove to be a tall order as he is going to have to eat punches in order to get this thing down to where he could have a better chance. Upsets do happen, and they will surely happen again in the future and Marrero does have a chance to win this fight, but it will take him being in the right place at the right time when Bader makes a rookie mistake and finding a way to end it early and win by way of submission. There is no way that I can see Marrero winning this one on the feet, and taking it the distance does not benefit him either, so I really see his only chance coming by way of catching a very aggressive Bader in a submission following a mistake.
-Bent’s Prediction: Ryan Bader by 2nd Round TKO-
Carlos Condit vs. Martin Kampmann
Our main event of the evening looks to be a spectacular one, and one of the very best to ever headline a Spike card, and it features two of the very best young fighters in the welterweight division. Condit comes to the UFC having been the WEC Welterweight Champion, and Kampmann is dropping down to 170 lbs. for the second time after having competed at middleweight for his career, and the two are set to meet in a fight which is as good as one gets on a free card. Both men have enough power to keep the other honest, and both are comfortable on the ground, and this test for both shall be a treat for the rest of us while serving to show who could be the next top contender at welterweight.
Carlos Condit was the final WEC Welterweight Champion and found himself without a home when the WEC did away with the weight class, and as a result he is now going to test his mettle in the UFC. In terms of talent this is a fighter who should have probably been in the UFC some time ago, and he definitely was a big fish in a small WEC pond as he handled everyone he faced while there with relative ease. Condit is well versed in submissions and possesses the ability to finish from both top and bottom position, while also packing enough of a punch to not make facing him on the feet seem desirable. Condit is an Arizona Combat Sports product who at only 24 years of age has a tremendous upside, and should be a force to be reckoned with in years to come; he is also an exciting fighter to watch as only one of his bouts has ever gone the distance.
Carlos Condit has 23 wins in his career with 10 coming by way of knockout and 13 by way of submission against only 4 losses. He has notched victories over the likes of Renato Verissimo, Frank Trigg, John Alessio and Brock Larson. His nickname is "Natural Born Killer," and he is definitely scarier than Woody Harrelson with a shaved head, as he brings technical proficiency to go along with his aggressive fighting style. His time spent in the WEC was nothing short of dominant, and he is poised to make a big splash on the largest stage as he takes on the dangerous Martin Kampmann.
Martin Kampmann is an Xtreme Couture fighter who has been nothing short of tough as a middleweight in the UFC, and hopes to find success after dropping down a class in weight. He is dropping down in weight but possibly moving up in class in terms of the talent his opponent possesses, and this is quite the test for him at welterweight.
Kampmann has 14 wins on his resume with 7 wins coming by way of knockout and 5 by submission against only two losses. Some of the fighters he has bested include the likes of Thales Leites, Andrew McFedries, and Jorge Rivera. The only fighters to defeat Kampmann have been Andrei Semenov and Nate Marquardt, with the lose to Semenov coming early on his career and due to a cut. Losing to Nate Marquardt is nothing to be ashamed of, but this first round TKO loss at UFC 88 is what necessitated the drop in weight, and it is likely that welterweight could be where Kampmann is suited to fight. He faces a huge test in taking on Carlos Condit, and a victory here would go a long way towards establishing Kampmann as a force in the division.
For Carlos Condit to win this fight it will take him arriving for this fight in his customary cardiovascular condition, and not falling prey to Octagon shock or rather the shock of fighting on the largest stage of all. As a fighter he is more than ready for this bout, and he has been ready for some time as he has not been sufficiently tested in the WEC, but he is taking on a dangerous opponent in Kampmann and will need to be at his very best if he hopes to make his debut a successful one. Condit should not look to overpower Kampmann in the way that Marquardt did, but he should look to and be capable of getting this one to the ground quickly. Once on the ground this will become his fight, and he is a fighter capable of pulling off the submission at any time and from anywhere on the ground. Condit will be looking for the submission from the opening seconds of this fight and will not quit until this one is over with, and if he has his way it will definitely not make it the distance and his UFC debut will be a spectacular one.
For Martin Kampmann to win this fight it is going to take his kickboxing pedigree and striking power to keep Condit at bay, and perhaps keep this one standing for a bit as he tries to rack up points and make this one go beyond a round or two. Kampmann has the advantage so long as he keeps the fight standing, but this is not to say that he is suddenly in over his head if it hit’s the ground. Kampmann’s wrestling is solid and he does also possess some submission skills, albeit not on the level of Condit. This fight is his to win if he can make Condit uncomfortable and push the pace while landing blows and using his striking advantage. It is conceivable that he could win this on the feet, and this is where he has his best chance to win either by TKO or decision.
-Bent’s Prediction: Carlos Condit by 2nd Round Submission-
Carlos Condit will not be able to blast out Kampmann like Marquardt did, but he will be able to do just enough to land his shots while weathering the onslaught and then take this one to the ground where he is most at home. Once on the ground it will not be easy, but this will be Condit’s fight to lose, and after what should be a very tentative first round it should result in Kampmann tapping out around the middle of round number two and we will have ourselves a new top contender to watch in the welterweight division; and the "Natural Born Killer" will look like he was naturally born to fight in the UFC.
DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
Interested in joining MMATorch's writing team? Send idea for a theme to your column (for Specialist section) or area of interest (i.e. TV Reporter) along with a sample of writing to mmatorch@gmail.com.
