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By: Jason Bent, MMATorch Columnist Another week and another MMA card; but while there is no break in the action there will be a break for your wallet this week as 'UFC Fight Night 17' from Tampa, FL comes our way free of charge on Spike TV at 9pm EST Saturday night. This isn't exactly the sort of card that has anyone salivating, as this one lacks star power as well as recognizable names, but it is well put together from top to bottom.
I know that there are many among us who would pay 50 dollars to simply watch Fedor train and gladly paid for 'Affliction: Day of Reckoning,' but this card is not one to be sneered at and could prove to be better once it is all over. Not in terms of magnitude or because any of these fighters are even on a level near that of Fedor, but for evenly matched fights this looks to be a job well done by Joe Silva.
I'm just happy that my cable bill doesn't have to go up by yet another 50 dollars this weekend, and that alone is enough to make me breathe a sigh of relief. Right now I owe Comcast so much money that they are threatening to make C-Span the only channel I can receive; and this allows me an extra week to sell plasma, sperm and maybe even a kidney in hopes of satisfying the debt.
So here are my predictions for 'UFC Fight Night 17,' and just like the show itself, these are all brought to you free of charge. Of course based on my recent picks I would not advise you to take the kid's college fund and run with these to your nearest sportsbook. The one safe bet would be to take the 50 dollars that this card will not cost you and spend it on pizza and beer rather than forking it over to the cable company for once. Pizza and beer is always a sure bet, and much like this free UFC card is a win-win for everyone.
Kurt Pellegrino (18-4) vs. Rob Emerson (10-6-1)
Our opening bout of the evening in terms of the televised portion of the event looks to be a good one at lightweight, as Kurt Pellegrino is set to take on Rob Emerson. Pellegrino is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace coming off of a unanimous decision victory over Thiago Tavares at UFC 88, and Emerson is formerly of 'The Ultimate Fighter 5' and riding a six fight win streak. This is a fight that both men need to win as Pellegrino is looking to get back in there against top level competition and Emerson is looking to prove he is more than just a journeyman. Styles make fights, and when the styles of these two men clash on Saturday it should at least make for a solid if not memorable opening contest.
Kurt Pellegrino holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has been a bit of an underachiever in the UFC. He has been a very hot and cold fighter who has put forth some fantastic efforts in the past but always seems to fall short when he steps up in competition. He has beaten Nate Mohr, Alberto Crane and Thiago Tavares while losing convincingly to Joe Stevenson and Nate Diaz. His bout with Diaz is particularly memorable if only for Nate Diaz hitting a double biceps pose and giving a double middle finger salute while submitting Pellegrino to a textbook triangle choke. There is no such risk of being submitted by Emerson, but Pellegrino is going to need this fight to take place on the ground if he wishes to have a chance to win.
Rob Emerson became known to UFC fans after his stint on 'The Ultimate Fighter 5' and is coming off of an impressive :12 KO victory over Manny Gamburyan at UFC 87. Prior to this he scored a split decision victory over Keita Nakamura, which was his first bout in the UFC since his no contest against Gray Maynard at 'The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale.' Emerson has had a pretty subpar career, and is not necessarily spectacular in any one aspect of the game, but he is a game opponent and could give Pellegrino a few fits. The former gang member is looking to keep his UFC career alive with a victory over "Batman" but defeating Pellegrino isn't going to be as easy as beating on an innocent man at a gas station.
Bent's Prediction: Kurt Pellegrino by 2nd Round Submission
Emerson has the advantage on the feet and Pellegrino has it on the ground, but there is absolutely nothing to suggest that "The Saint" has what it takes to keep it standing. Kurt will be outgunned on the feet but Rob's takedown defense is nowhere near what it needs to be to avoid getting put down on the ground and controlled before being submitted. Pellegrino is not a superstar but he gets the nod in this one and earns another shot against a better caliber of opponent.
Luigi Fioravanti (13-4) vs. Anthony Johnson (6-2)
The second bout of the evening is a very solid welterweight matchup between the well rounded veteran in Fioravanti and the unorthodox young fighter in Johnson. Fioravanti is an American Top Team product with limited striking ability but plenty of heart to go along with amazing takedown defense, and he is coming off of a unanimous decision victory over Brodie Farber at 'UFC Fight For the Troops' in December. Johnson on the other hand is a superb athlete with a solid wrestling background who possesses a deadly striking game, and he is coming off of a KO victory over Kevin Burns at 'The Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale.' This bout is a test for both, and will definitely let us know if Anthony Johnson is ready for the next level at 170 lbs., but "Rumble" has quite the challenge ahead in Fioravanti.
Anthony Johnson is a gifted athlete who has amateur wrestling credentials and legitimate one shot knockout power. Johnson always arrives in shape and this is not a fighter who is going to gas easily, which makes him trouble for anyone hoping to wear him down and take the pop out of his punches. Anthony Johnson is ready to make a splash in this division but Fioravanti represents a huge step up in competition for him, and this fight is not going to be an easy one for the young man. Johnson has pulled off some highlight reel knockouts over the likes of Tommy Speer and Kevin Burns, but he was choked out by Rich Clementi, and Fioravanti is a major step up from Clementi. Johnson's cardio and his wrestling ability should be enough to allow him to keep this one standing, and his power is definitely capable of ending Fioravanti's night early.
Luigi Fioravanti is a well rounded fighter who makes up in heart what he lacks in talent and has faced the likes of Chris Leben, Jon Fitch and Diego Sanchez. He lost to all three men but he is experienced for having competed against them, and this is where he has an edge over Anthony Johnson. Fioravanti is an average striker who should not try and bang with Johnson, but it's tough to really envision him being able to pull the trigger and get the victory over Johnson. He should be able to keep Johnson from taking him down but is going to be hard pressed to match his power and have an even harder time just keeping up with his younger opponent. Fioravanti must come into this fight in top shape or else he risks being eaten alive by Johnson, and if he wishes to win it is going to take being the smarter and more patient fighter and grinding this one out to a decision victory.
Bent's Prediction: Anthony Johnson by 2nd Round TKO
Fioravanti is a solid hand in the Octagon but he just doesn't have enough to match Johnson fire for fire and is going to be outgunned from the very beginning of this fight. Johnson is one of those athletic freaks who fights in an unorthodox manner and this will probably befuddle Fioravanti and leave him open for some huge shots. I really don't see grappling coming into play here and think Johnson is going to go at this bout as if it were a sprint and I just don't think Fioravanti is capable of matching him and I definitely don't think he will be in good enough shape to try.
Mac Danzig (19-5-1) vs. Josh Neer (24-7-1)
The dentist and vegetables are two of the things that would rank near the top if you were to poll a group of children in regards to things they hate. On Saturday night at 'UFC Fight Night 17' these will be two of the men facing off in what should be a solid lightweight encounter as the noted vegan Mac Danzig is set to take on Josh "The Dentist" Neer. While most of us would prefer not to have Mac Danzig cook for us (and all of us would prefer not to ride shotgun in a car driven by Josh Neer) watching the two fight should be a lot more fun than brussels sprouts or brushing teeth.
Mac Danzig has been around for a while and competed for King of the Cage, Gladiator Challenge and Pride, but came to be known by most UFC fans after having won 'The Ultimate Fighter 6' as a member of Team Hughes. After defeating Tommy Speer in the finale, Danzig announced that he would be dropping down from welterweight and campaigning at his more natural weight of 155 lbs. His first UFC bout at lightweight was a success as he forced Mark Bocek to submit to a rear naked choke in the 3rd round of their bout at UFC 83. Danzig would next face Clay Guida at 'UFC Fight Night 15' and drop the unanimous decision in a fight in which he was simply outhustled all night long. Danzig has a solid wrestling base to go with a decent submission game and above average striking skills. He isn't the best at any one particular aspect of the game, but he is a thinking man's fighter and is not one to make too many mistakes.
Josh Neer is a solid lightweight contender in his own right who is more than dangerous on the ground, but sadly this isn't true just inside of the Octagon. Neer, of course, is the winner of the 2009 Quinton "Rampage" Jackson Road Rally as he was arrested on New Year's Day and charged with DWI and hit and run amongst other things. This of course is sad for all parties involved, and once again we are all lucky that no one was hurt, but I am just glad that the UFC treated Neer no differently than they did Jackson as they kept him on this card and didn't punish him. Now, this is not to suggest that they won't be cutting ties with him if he should lose to Danzig, but for now at least they chose to go the "Rampage" route and not the Jesse Taylor one.
Neer is a very dangerous opponent who not only possesses knockout power but a top notch submission game to match, and it is his aggression which could cause the most trouble for Danzig. Neer has decision victories over both Joe Stevenson and Din Thomas, and most recently lost a split decision to Nate Diaz at 'UFC Fight Night 15.' It was this fight with Diaz that really showed just how much of a ground game that Neer has, and it can be argued that the decision should have gone the other way in that one. Josh Neer is a pressure fighter and this when coupled with his many assets could be just the thing that pushes him to victory over Mac Danzig.
Bent's Prediction: Mac Danzig by 3rd Round TKO
I believe that the Neer's ground game can be successfully neutralized by Danzig and that it will be Mac's underrated striking skills which will decide this one. I was completely wrong as far as Quinton Jackson in terms of imagining that the legal problems could cause him to not be as sharp for a fight, but I do see this having an effect on Neer. Mac Danzig's advantage is in his cerebral approach to a fight and his picture perfect technique. While Neer certainly knows he can ill afford to make a mistake it is just that which I imagine will allow Danzig to put a stop to this fight and I see this happening in the middle of the 3rd round.
Cain Velasquez (4-0) vs. Denis Stojnic (12-1)
In our next to last fight of the evening we shall be treated to an excellent heavyweight showdown between the rookie wrecking machine Valasquez and Bosnian kikcboxer Stojnic who shall be making his UFC debut. We know what we have seen Cain Velasquez do but so far Denis Stojnic is an unknown commodity to most as he has fought exclusively in Europe. We do know that this one appears to be the grappler who can strike going up against the striker who may not be able to grapple and that this one should at least show us more about Velasquez while we get a chance to learn more about Stojnic.
Cain Velasquez is a former two-time All American wrestler with skills that place him on the level of a Couture or a Lesnar in the heavyweight division. He is a product of the American Kickboxing Academy, which is home to such stalwarts as Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, Bobby Southworth and Paul Buentello. Velasquez is a wrestler who has won all of his fights due to his striking game and is certainly one to watch in the division. Cain's striking is an unfair gift to have when you consider just how good of a wrestling base he has. Velasquez being able to knock people out is like finding out Brad Pitt can speak 7 languages and has talked Angelina Jolie into having Naomi Campbell join them in the bedroom for the weekend. It's just way too much for one man and Velasquez at only 26 years old is poised to make an impact on the heavyweight division; and he has the tools to do so but will first need to get past Denis Stojnic in order to take that next step. There is nothing to suggest that he will not be capable of doing so on Saturday.
Denis Stojnic is a Bosnian kickboxer who trains with the likes of Semmy Schilt and Alistair Overeem as a member of the famed Golden Glory team. There is no doubt about his striking skills being superb for having trained with these men on a daily basis. Stojnic is decidedly inexperienced and will be under the bright lights of the UFC for the first time, and this is something that could have quite an effect on him and set him up for failure. His grappling game is unknown, but given that his camp is known for focusing on striking it is likely that he hasn't much of a ground game to speak of. This of course could cause him fits in this fight, but it is likely that this will not come into play as Velasquez loves to bang. Stojnic might come out swinging for the fences but the advantage goes to Velasquez who has the ability to take the Bosnian down should he find himself in trouble. Stojnic is an unknown commodity, but he could make one hell of a first impression on everyone if he is able to best Velasquez.
Bent's Prediction: Cain Velasquez by 1st Round TKO
I see no reason why Velasquez will be unable to remain undefeated and many reasons why his streak of ending things in the first round should continue. I will go as far as to say that Stojnic might be able to trade, and this is based on who he trains with, but Velasquez has every single advantage imaginable. Cain Velasquez will be able to swing for the fences without any real worries about being taken down but Stojnic will have to be wary of being taken down at all times by the considerably more talented wrestler. I don't see Velasquez getting into much trouble in this one and finishing his man off by way of ground and pound after only a couple minutes of action.
Joe Lauzon (16-4) vs. Jeremy Stephens (16-3)
Give Jeremy Stephens a medal for bravery as he was willing to step in on little notice to replace Hermes Franca and take on Joe Lauzon at 'UFC Fight Night 17.' This is when you can really appreciate just how hungry a fighter is and when the willingness to fight anyone at anytime is put to the test. Many fighters talk the talk but pass on a fight if they feel they haven't enough time to train properly. Looking back to 'UFC Fight Night 14' and remembering that Brandon Vera passed on the challenge of fighting Lyoto Machida in order to face Reese Andy tells you that it isn't always the case that a fighter steps up and takes what is offered, and especially so on short notice such as what Stephens received. The hard-charging Stephens is set to do battle with the highly talented Lauzon in what should prove to be a solid 'Fight Night' main event.
Jeremy Stephens is primarily a striker and has enjoyed much success with this style throughout his very young MMA career. He brings much experience at only 22 years old and will be making his fifth appearance inside of the UFC Octagon on Saturday. He is coming off of a highlight reel KO of Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 91 and will certainly be looking to do more of the same against Lauzon. Stephens has won four of his last five fights, with the only loss coming at the hands of Spencer Fisher to whom he fell by way of decision at 'The Ultimate Fighter 7' finale. Twelve of his sixteen wins have come by way of knockout, and there is no doubt that he will opt to stand and try to goad Lauzon into a slugfest. Stephens will enjoy a huge advantage on the feet but will be at as much of a disadvantage should this one hit the ground, so this one is going to come down to whether or not Stephens can defend the takedown successfully.
Joe Lauzon burst onto the UFC scene by knocking out Jens Pulver in only :48 at UFC 63, and he went on to make it to the semifinals of 'The Ultimate Fighter 5' before falling to eventual runner-up Manny Gamburyan. Lauzon is a solid striker known more for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and this is especially so when you consider that he has won thirteen of his bouts by way of submission. This will be his third 'UFC Fight Night' appearance in a row and he is coming off of a TKO victory over Kyle Bradley at 'UFC Fight Night 15.' Lauzon suffered a TKO loss to Kenny Florian at 'UFC Fight Night 13,' but it should be noted that he gave Florian all he could handle in the first before succumbing in the second in what was awarded 'Fight of the Night' honors. Lauzon is only 24 years old and on a mission to prove that he should get another chance against the class of this division, and he looks to take the first step back with a victory over Stephens.
Bent's Prediction: Joe Lauzon by 2nd Round Submission
Jeremy Stephens should be in great shape and look to slug this one out, but Joe Lauzon is just too slick for him at this point and I see the fight heading to the ground rather quickly. Lauzon is at a huge disadvantage on the feet and it would make no sense at all for him to try and engage in a slugfest with the hungry and motivated Stephens. I don't think the short notice will have much of an effect on either fighter, but Lauzon is just the wrong opponent for Stephens to find success against. I appreciate Jeremy Stephens for saying yes to this fight and expect him to give us his very best effort, but he is just not refined enough to do much more than throw a punch and say a prayer before being submitted by Joe Lauzon.
Bent's Undercard Predictions:
Matt Riddle over Steve Bruno by Decision
Nick Catone over Derek Downey by Unanimous Decision
Rich Clementi over Gleison Tibau by 2nd Round Submission
Matt Veach over Matt Grice by 2nd Round Submission
Dan Miller over Jake Rosholt by 3rd Round Submission
We have been spoiled recently with high profile fights taking place seemingly every few weeks, and while this card is not on the level of those events it is also one which should not be overlooked. First and foremost it is being brought to us free of charge and will air on Spike TV at 9PM EST. Overall this is a solid card and the undercard features a few fighters worth taking a look at, such as middleweight prospect Jake Rosholt and welterweight Matt Riddle, as well as a compelling lightweight matchup between Gleison Tibau and Rich Clementi. On the surface this is not necessarily the most glamorous card, but we could be treated to some great performances and should see a few very good fights.
All in all this looks to be one of the better 'UFC Fight Night' cards and one I strongly recommend that any MMA fan should watch, whether this be live or later on thanks to Tivo or DVR. You might not want to cancel all of your plans in order to see it, but you should try and make some time to fit this one in.
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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