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Opinion & Analysis
PELKEY COLUMN: Full UFC 83 preview with predictions and betting picks
By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist
Apr 16, 2008, 17:32
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The UFC is set to make its long-awaited Canadian debut Saturday night in Montreal with UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre 2. The card is loaded with middleweights and Canadians, and it looks pretty good on paper. Plus the main event might be the biggest fight we'll see this year (with contention from Rampage-Griffin at UFC 86). Onto the picks!
1- Ed Herman vs. Damien Maia
We open the night of fights with a middleweight contest. That's a
running theme of the show. I'm pretty sure 90% of the UFC middleweight
division is on this card. We know what we're getting with Ed Herman.
He's tough, well-rounded, a good wrestler, and loves to GnP. He just
doesn't seem to excel enough in any one area to make me think he'll
ever be in the elite of the elite of his division.
Maia comes in off a win over Ryan Jensen in his UFC debut at UFC 77.
He's undefeated in six pro fights, so while Herman has the experience
advantage, Maia might just be better. If this was Maia's first UFC
fight I'd take Herman, but it's not. The jitters should be gone, and
Maia should be ready to take another step up the ladder.
Prediction: Maia by submission in round 2
2- Cain Velasquez vs. Brad Morris
Fight number two features two heavyweights making their UFC debuts.
Velasquez is undefeated, but has only two fights to his credit. Both of
his victories have been strike stoppages, so it would appear he likes
to brawl. His fights have also been in Strikeforce and BodogFight, so
the transition to the big-time shouldn't be too tough.
Morris comes in at 9-2, so he has a clear experience advantage, but
both of his losses have been by TKO. The fact that Velasquez is making
his UFC debut after only two fights tells me that the higher-ups must
be high on him. This fight could provide us with our first fireworks of
the night.
Prediction: Velasquez by TKO in round 1
3- Alan Belcher vs. Jason Day
Just like with Herman, we know what we're getting with Belcher. He
loves to bang and has a good motor, but his submission defense isn't
exactly world-class. I'm not sure if the UFC is still high on him or if
he's finishing out a contract, but this fight could be telling.
Day is making his UFC debut, but he hasn't lacked for top competition.
He owns victories over UFC vets Davis Loiseau and Jonathan Goulet, and
has lost to Patrick Cote and Victor Valimaki. That's a pretty
impressive resume for a guy who's never fought for a top organization.
This fight is a coin flip. Either Day with get stopped with strikes or
Belcher will get submitted. Conventional wisdom says take the guy with
Octagon experience.
Prediction: Belcher by TKO in round 2
4- Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs. Jonathan Goulet
Our first welterweight contest of the night features two fighters in
need of a win if they have any hopes of moving up the crowded ladder in
their division. Both fighters are tough and well rounded, so this one
is hard to call. It may just come down to home-field advantage for
Goulet. He, like several other fighters on this card, is a native
Canuck. The crowd and emotion will be enough to carry him to victory,
but I don't see either fighter being finished here.
Prediction: Goulet by decision
5- Sam Stout vs. Rich Clementi
I've never been shy about my man-crush on Sam Stout. I just love
watching the guy fight. I think his stand-up game is second to only
Anderson Silva in the UFC. Where he lacks, however, is on the ground.
After being submitted by Kenny Florian, UFC match-maker Joe Silva wised
up and started pitting Stout against other fighters willing to stand
for three rounds. Well...that streak ends here.
Rich Clementi may never be a world champion, but the guy is great on
the ground and has an unbelievable chin. He's never been stopped by
strikes in forty-three professional fights. FOURTY-THREE! That's
Nogueira territory. This is just a bad match-up for Stout. Clementi
will stand for a round or two, but he's smart enough to take the fight
to the ground when he needs to. Stout will have the crowd on his side,
but it won't be enough. Of all the fights on the undercard, this is the
one I most hope we get to see.
Prediction: Clementi by submission in round 2
6- Jason MacDonald vs. Joe Doerksen
I just don't have much to say about this fight. Doerksen has never done
anything for me, and while I like MacDonald, this is a bad match-up for
him. Doerksen will take the fight to the ground at will and fend off
submissions from the top for three rounds. Don't expect fireworks in
this one.
Prediction: Doerksen by decision
7- Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek
In our first fight of the main card, TUF 6 winner Mac Danzig takes on
submission specialist Mark Bocek. Not only will this be Danzig's first
fight since winning season 6, it'll be his first since dropping down to
his natural lightweight division. Bocek is a wizard on the ground, but
he won't be able to submit Danzig.
Danzig's submission defense will be good enough to neutralize Bocek's
one advantage. Bocek will take some shots on the feet, and when he
tries to take the fight to the ground, he'll end up on his back.
Danzig's ego might tell him to work for a submission, but his brain
will win out and he'll rain down strikes until the ref steps in.
Prediction: Danzig by TKO in round 1
8- Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy
TUF 3 winner Michael Bisping makes his middleweight debut against
season 4 alum Charles McCarthy. You have to assume Bisping is being
groomed for a potential title shot against Anderson Silva within the
next year or so. Don't tell that to Charles McCarthy. He's already
calling out Anderson Silva. HA! No offense to McCarthy, but if he
hasn't improved his entire game dramatically, and I mean DRAMATICALLY,
he won't get past Michael Bisping, much less within ten miles of a
fight with the Spider.
Bisping has a big advantage on the feet here, but his weakness is
McCarthy's strength. As long as Bisping can stay off his back, he
should be in good shape here. I just feel like the UFC wouldn't have
put Bisping in this fight if they weren't sure Bisping would come out
on top. This is a showcase fight for Bisping.
Prediction: Bisping by TKO in round 2
9- Kalib Starnes vs. Nate Quarry
This is another showcase fight. Now that Quarry is back from his near
two year absence, the UFC is getting right back to pushing Quarry to
the top of the division. Skill-wise these fighters are pretty evenly
matched. Where Quarry has the advantage is in strength and heart.
Starnes isn't a big 185, and he seems to give up on fights when they
aren't going his way. That's a bad recipe for a fight against Quarry.
Quarry is a machine. He's probably too old to ever improve enough to
challenge Anderson Silva, but he can solidify his spot at the top of
the division with this fight. This will be a technical slugfest, but
Quarry will eventually wear down Starnes and land a fight-ending shot.
Prediction: Quarry by TKO in round 3
10- Travis Lutter vs. Rich Franklin
This is a VERY interesting fight. Franklin has established himself as
the undisputed prince of the middleweight division. He seems capable of
dominating anyone not named Anderson Silva (by the way, I've mentioned
him like a hundred times, and he's not even on the show. He must be
good or something). Lutter is very, very good on the ground, but I
don't think he can submit Franklin, or even keep him down, for that
matter.
This fight really comes down to where Franklin's head is. If he comes
in thinking about Travis Lutter, and only Travis Lutter, he should win
convincingly. If he comes in with Anderson Silva still in the back of
his mind, he might have a clunker of a performance (think of his fight
with Yushin Okami) and could be in trouble. I'm guessing he comes in
focused.
Prediction: Franklin by TKO in round 2
11- Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre
Well this is it. The rematch a year in the making. Will Georges St.
Pierre avenge his embarrassing loss and reclaim his rightful spot on
the welterweight throne, or will Serra prove the first fight was no
fluke at all? Um...the former. No disrespect to Matt Serra, but you've
had your time in the limelight. Time to go back to your school and work
on preparing Luke Cummo for his eventual title shot to avenge you
against GSP. Ok, maybe the Luke Cummo part is a little silly, but the
going back to his school part is the truth.
GSP has stated in several interviews that he's gonna break out some
stuff we've never seen before. This will be a lot like GSP's second
fight with Matt Hughes, where he basically toyed with him for a round
and then put him away in round two. I think St. Pierre can name his
round in this fight, and he seems to like the second round. That'll
give him a good seven or eight minutes to unleash his flurry and show
off his repertoire. Then he'll end it with some sort of spectacular
strike. Maybe a spinning backfist? Hmmm...
Prediction: St. Pierre by TKO in round 2
Well that's the whole card. Should be pretty good from top to bottom,
and then close with an historic fight. And now time for my fake money
wagers!
Betting Contest:
$400 on Jason Day
$400 on Joe Doerksen
$100 on Charles McCarthy
$100 on Matt Serra
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