You’ll have to excuse me while I get a little cynical this week. 

See, I keep hearing all these rumors about how Fedor Emelianenko, one of the greatest fighters in the history of mixed martial arts (even if his career had ended in 2005), is going to be a free agent.  This site or that site claims that it’s just a matter of time before the most dominant heavyweight ever to set foot in an MMA ring can sign with whomever he wants, thank you very much.  But here’s the thing:  whether it’s true or not (and it probably is), it doesn’t matter. 

Let’s take a look at what’s gone on with Fedor in the last year or so.  He fought his last bout in Pride against Mark Hunt on New Year’s Eve 2006.  Pride dissolves, and he takes a fight with Bodog against Matt Lindland in April.  Then the whole free agency thing happens, negotiations with the UFC go nowhere, and M-1 is formed.  After that?  Nothing.  M-1 had him fight one time against Hong Man Choi on New Year’s Eve amidst rumors that a fight with Jeff Monson will materialize at some point.  M-1 has talked about putting on an event in June (postponed from May) in Chicago with Fedor headlining.  But there are precious few details about the alleged show.  Now we get the rumors about difficulties between the American and Russian counterparts within M-1, and the business side of sports rears its ugly head yet again.  The bottom line is that whatever the goal has been for Emelianenko, he hasn’t fought any real competition under the M-1 banner, and it doesn’t look like he ever will at this point. 

So that leaves us with the current situation.  If we can just pretend for a second that Fedor is a free agent right now, what are the likely scenarios?  You’ve got EliteXC and the UFC stateside, then upstarts Dream and World Victory Road in Japan.  Of course there’s the rumored alliance between the Affliction clothing line and Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions, but let’s leave that future train wreck aside for the moment.  There’s also HDNet Fights, but we’ll get to them later. 

Take a look at Japan first.  If Fedor signs with Dream, who will he fight?  Cro Cop?  That might be a desirable fight if the Croatian pulls himself back together, but until he wins a significant fight in the Octagon, it just won’t be the same as it was back in 2005.  At the moment, I’m unaware of any other credible heavyweight signed by Dream.  And what of World Victory Road?  I would submit that this is the most intriguing option for the moment, as it’s the home of the best-suited (currently active) fighter never to have faced Fedor—Josh Barnett.  Now that is a fight that the hardcore MMA fan wants to see.  Maybe not as much as Couture-Emelianenko, but it’s something, right?

If Fedor’s management were to put their aversion to contracts aside (Vladim Finkelstein, Fedor’s manager, does not believe in contracts) and sign with EliteXC, what awaits him there?  A showdown with Kevin Ferguson, the sensation known as Kimbo Slice?  Who could ProElite possibly bring in to fight Fedor that would excite you and me, the people who have been waiting to see Fedor fight some real competition?  The answer is simple.  No one.  Could they make a star of Emelianenko?  Absolutely.  But credible opponents?  I see zero. 

As for HDNet fights, how do they even work?  I know they put on one event, but are they a fight promotion, or is it kind of a TV series, like Tuesday Night Fights?  I know the idea is for them to be a promotion, but every time an MMA program is shown on HDNet, my DVR calls it HDNet Fights—whether it’s Ring of Combat, Yarrenoka!, or anything else.  So Mark Cuban may indeed nab Fedor, but I have no idea how it would work if he did.  And to be quite honest, I’m not sure that he’s looking to spend the kind of money it would take to bring Emelianenko into the fold.  (Does he have a fold?)  Not that I can blame him, mind you.  Because really, if he signed Fedor, what would he do?  Sure, there’s the possible fight with Randy Couture if the stars align and every MMA fan gets his or her wish, but even if that does happen, what next?  I don’t think Mark Cuban knows the answer to that, and that’s why he won’t sign Fedor.

And that leaves the elephant in the room that everyone seems to want to talk about:  the UFC.  To put it bluntly, there is no chance that Emelianenko will sign for the UFC.  Zero.  No way.  Ever.  Why?  Because Fedor and his people think that the UFC’s contracts are too restrictive.  And really, what incentive does the UFC have to change their contracts?  So that they can get the best fighter in the world that most of their fans have never heard of?  Please.  Like any other promotion with some kind of exposure, the UFC could definitely make a star of Fedor in the States.  But if he won’t conform to their terms, why should they conform to his?  For the sake of competition?  In a perfect world, perhaps.  But until MMA is like football, baseball or basketball, where there is one universally-recognized destination for the greatest in that sport, the sake of competition doesn’t mean anything.  At this stage in the game, there’s no reason to change the rules for one guy.  Even if it’s Fedor.

So again, pardon the cynic in me, but I’m just not all that excited about Fedor being a free agent.  The only place for Fedor Emelianenko to spend his prime years and fight top competition is the UFC, and that’s just not going to happen.  I really hope I’m wrong, because no one wants to see if he’s still got it more than I do.  But the problem is that I’m not wrong.  MMA should be about the best fighters fighting each other, and regardless of what happens in the coming months, I don’t see that happening.