|
|
|
PPV Events
:
UFC PPVs
CATTELANE - UFC 80 Preview
MMA Torch Columnist - Jerry Cattelane
Jan 16, 2008, 00:31
|
Saturday afternoon will feature the first PPV event of the new year for the UFC. UFC kahuna Dana White has promised a "huge" 2008 for MMA fans. We'll see how it unfolds from Metro Radio Arena in Newcastle, England with UFC 80: Rapid Fire.
I received no short order of flack for my dismal UFC 79 performance in which I went 3-7. Along the way, I realized that I had become what I most disliked when I first discovered MMA. I began ignoring the realities of the UFC and trends that were self-evident. Fellow columnist Joshua Borrell, from the eastern paradise that is New Jersey, took me to task on the message boards and his harsh commentary has revitalized my prediction juices. Even though Borrell has never won a Prediction or Betting Championship (unlike your humble author), his message to me was inspiring.
So, with that in mind, I will review some of my fight picking rules and abide by them, unless there is exceptional reason to ignore them.
UFC 80: Rapid Fire (please note, records are per Sherdog)
1) Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout (12-3-1, 8 TKO, 1 Sub) vs. Per Eklund (12-2-1, 2 TKO, 5 Sub) - Lightweight
First rule. UFC rookies lose. With rare exception, the Octagon jitters are real and you should play them accordingly. Eklund has a decent record with a couple of name opponents, but Stout has been in with Spencer Fisher twice, winning once and, more importantly for this exercise, is a UFC veteran. Therefore, the pick is Stout to win the fight and since he usually wins by TKO, we'll take Stout in the third round via TKO.
2) James Lee (13-2, 3 TKO, 10 Sub) vs. Alessio "Legionnarius" Sakara (11-6, 6 TKO, 2 Sub) - Light Heavyweight
Lee is another UFC rookie, but he has a win in Pride, which is a double whammy. Pride vets have fared poorly in the Octagon so far, especially in their debuts. Lee is not what I would consider a Pride veteran, but he has a fight there, so we'll consider one and a half strikes against him. This will be Sakara's 7th fight in the UFC. He is 2-3 with a no contest thus far. Clearly, he gets the UFC veteran edge. The only problem is that he has not fared well in the Octagon at all and has suspiciously lackluster ground skills, which may cause a problem with the versatile Lee. And, he has stated that he is moving down to middleweight after this fight regardless of outcome. Is this enough to overturn my rules? Am I letting reason run away with me? Nope, I can't do it. I said rules and trends and I'm sticking with it. I leave wisdom for the guy from New Jersey. I am going with my rules here, which clearly have Sakara winning by strikes somewhere in the second round.
3) Paul Kelly (6-0, 4 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Paul "Relentless" Taylor (8-2-1, 5 TKO, 2 Sub) - Welterweight
Once again, Kelly is a first timer, therefore he's losing the fight. Taylor, however, is a courageous fighter who will bring the pace. Kelly is undefeated and that's nice, but not enough. Taylor by TKO in the first round.
4) Antoni Hardonk (5-4, 3 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Colin Robinson (9-3, 5 TKO, 3 Sub) - Heavyweight
OK, new rule. Don't ride the horse that threw you before. Robinson cost me the Prediction title a while ago when he lost to Eddie Sanchez. Even though he was beating Sanchez in the first round, he gassed in the second and Sanchez beat him down. Therefore, I have to go with Hardonk, even though he's 1-2 in the UFC. Hardonk will not have to worry too much about his ground game being exposed (again) and, therefore, I like his chances against a much older Robinson. This should be fun to watch though. The rules say Hardonk by second round TKO.
5) Jorge "Conquistador" Rivera (14-6, 9 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove (8-4, 1 TKO, 6 Sub) - Middleweight
Let's see what the rules say on this one. Grove is coming off a knockout loss to Patrick Cote in August. Rivera hasn't been seen since getting demolished by Terry Martin in February. So, that's even. Grove was on the fast track to the upper echelons of the division before Cote dropped him. Usually, a loss like that is a crossroads for a young fighter. I can't comment on where Rivera has been. Hmmm, the rules usually suggest that a grappler has the edge on a striker in the cage. With that in mind, I think Grove is the pick here, especially as he is younger, faster and taller than Rivera. I think both fighters might be a bit gunshy and this will eventually find its way to the mat. Grove's height and length makes it difficult for anyone. So, rules says grappler>striker in the Octagon, thus Grove is the pick for GnP TKO victory in round two.
6) Wilson Gouveia (9-4, 3 TKO, 5 Sub) vs. Jason "Punisher" Lambert (23-6, 12 TKO, 7 Sub) - Light Heavyweight
Wilson Gouveia was last seen at the end of the UFC 71 PPV in May choking out Carmelo Marrero. It was a very impressive performance from the 29 year old as he extended his UFC winning streak to three. Jason Lambert has run a pretty impressive gauntlet himself, although, he hasn't fought since March. This is a tough one to call. Lambert is as exciting as they come. Gouveia is very slick with his ground skills and has about a four inch height advantage. I'm not sure this is as clear-cut a grappler/striker matchup as I want it to be. And, it's tough to root against Lambert, because he is so much fun to watch. However, I'm going with the taller, ground oriented Gouveia to get a submission (unless he gets knocked out). Gouveia by submission in the first round.
7) Jess "Joker" Liaudin (12-8, 3 TKO, 8 Sub) vs. Marcus "Irish Hand Grenade" Davis (13-3, 4 TKO, 7 Sub) - Welterweights
Davis has looked so good in his last few fights that it's hard not to pick him here. Liaudin has been very consistent and has not lost in his last five fights dating back to September of 2005. I don't think he's fought the level of competition that Davis has, nor do I think he has the skill set to overcome Davis' evolving skills. Still, he might not be a bad pick for an upset. However, the rules say no picking your upset in the Prediction contest, save it for the Betting. I'll go with Davis in a first round TKO.
8) Fabricio Werdum (9-3-1, 2 TKO, 5 Sub) vs. Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga, MMA Torch Nation #3 ranked UFC Heavyweight (8-2, 3 TKO, 5 Sub) - Heavyweights
This is a rematch of a September 2003 fight won by Werdum in the third round by strikes. Werdum went on to a relatively successful run in Pride. Gonzaga has had quite a bit of success in the UFC, including a shot at the title. This should be an interesting clash of styles. Both men have something to prove. Gonzaga should be looking to reestablish himself after getting dominated by Randy Couture. Werdum should be looking to make an impact after a lackluster decision loss to Andrei Arlovski. The rules lean towards taking a UFC guy over a Pride guy in the Octagon if things appear otherwise similar. I think this a good matchup for Werdum actually given his countering style, but the rules lean towards Napao and that's how I'm playing the game this time around. So, Gonzaga to win by strikes (TKO) in round three.
9) B.J. "Prodigy" Penn, MMA Torch Nation #1 ranked UFC Lightweight (11-4-1, 4 TKO, 4 Sub) vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson, MMA Torch Nation #2 ranked UFC Lightweight (28-7, 6 TKO, 12 Sub) - UFC Lightweight Championship
And now, the championship match. The rules usually state, unless you have reason to doubt a big name, go with them. B.J. Penn is a big name. He has really only fought big names. His last four fights have been against champions or former champions, often in higher weight classes. Stevenson has his work cut out for him here. Part of the question is whether or not Penn has it in him to potentially go 25 minutes with Stevenson, who by all accounts is a cardio machine. If this gets into the later rounds, Stevenson has to have the edge. I really want to go with Stevenson in this fight for some reason, but the rules won't let me. Penn is the big name and there's no reason, no solid reason to bet against him here. Can Penn finish Stevenson? I think he might have to, because I really like Stevenson later. It sounds ridiculous, but the rules have me taking Penn in an early third round submission.
So, there it is from me and the rules. I feel a little awry on picking Sakara and Penn, but I'm not changing my mind. I'm curious to see how it all turns out.
What about YOU? YOU can compete in our Prediction and betting Championships. Check out the Prediction and Playing With Money links on the main page and get YOUR picks in. YOU could be the next #1 contender and fight for the title on January 23.
RETURN TO MMA TORCH'S MAIN LISTING
REACT TO THIS STORY IN OUR FREE MMATORCH FORUM
| 
(c) 1999-2008 TDH Communications Inc. - All rights reserved.
|
|
|
