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CATTELANE: UFC 79 Preview
Jerry Cattelane, MMA Torch Columnist
Dec 27, 2007, 08:17
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UFC 79: Nemesis will be broadcast from the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino on Saturday, December 29. The card features a whopping 10 fights although how many will actually make it to broadcast is anybody's guess. Word on the street is six, but we'll see. Several intriguing matchups are slated to make this card a fitting finale to an offbeat and entertaining 2007.
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Several big questions will be answered tonight.
So, from the bottom of the card to the top, here is a look at UFC 79: Nemesis.
1) Mark Bocek (4-1, 1 TKO, 3 Sub) vs. Doug Evans (5-1, 1 TKO, 2 Sub) - Lightweight
It's odd that the official site for UFC 79 has both of these fighters as undefeated. Both have not only lost their last fight, but they lost them in the UFC. Go figure. And, your humble author bought the company hook, line and sinker, even though I should know better. Oh well, to the fight itself. Both fighters have lost to good competiton. Bocek lost via TKO after almost making it out of round one against Frankie Edgar back at UFC 73. Evans gave Huerta a good fight before losing via second round TKO at the TUF 5 Finale back in June. This should really be a good fight that you'll be able to watch for another two bucks on Monday. Both fighters fight well on the ground and look to be pretty evenly matched. I like Bocek and his background with Nova Uniao, but Evans was pretty impressive against Huerta and that is certainly saying something these days. I would expect a pretty fast paced match with Evans getting the nod by unanimous decision.
2) Roan Carneiro (11-6, 6 Sub) vs. Tony Desouza (10-3, 1 TKO, 6 Sub) - Welterweight
It's been nearly a year since we saw Desouza in the Octagon. At the time, he was getting KOed with a knee courtesy of Thiago Alves. He had been on a three fight win streak and only two months removed from dusting Dustin Hazelett via kimura in the first round. Carneiro will be making his first appearance on a UFC PPV card after two Fight Night appearances this year. He was most recently choked out by Jon Fitch, again, no shame there. Neither fighter seems to have much luck winning by TKO, although Desouza does have a single victory that way against three defeats. Again, this should be an entertaining bout that will not see the light of Saturday night unless something dramatic happens. I understimated Carneiro when he fought Clementi. Maybe I overestimated Clementi. In either case, I'm going to lean towrds the experience of Desouza and say he gets a unanimous decision win.
3) Jordan Radev (11-2, 4 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Dean "Boogeyman" Lister (9-5, 8 Sub) - Light Heavyweight
A curious matchup here as Radev has spent all of 33 seconds in the UFC. His only appearance was a KO at the hands of Drew McFedries in June. Lister has a laundry list of opponents and Octagon experience. A renowned grappler with a dangerous guard, Lister should be at home here against Radev, against whom he has a four inch height advantage. Neither fighter has been particularly active, but I have hard time seeing where Radev can take advantage of Lister, especially if this goes to the ground. Both fighters go to decision about half of the time and with yet another fight looking to take place mostly on the mat, it wouldn't surpirse me if this one did either. However, I think Lister will catch Radev somewhere along the way with a submission. Let's say....second round submission victory for Lister.
4) Nate Mohr (8-4, 5 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Manny "Pitbull" Gamburyan (5-2, 2 TKO, 2 Sub) - Lightweight
The "Pitbull" returns to the cage after sustaining a shoulder injury in June while fighting for the TUF 5 Lightweight crown. It's tough to say too much about Manny as his recent string of professional fights begins and ends with that fateful night in June. Still, his only other professional loss was to Sean Sherk. Mohr has been very active, logging his fourth fight of 2007. After starting the year in KOTC, he has gone 1-1 in the UFC. Beating Luke Caudillo and losing to Kurt Pellegrino (and his magenta hair at the time). Mohr isn't a bad play here if he can fend off the shooting Gamburyan and work some striking of his own. If Mohr, however, finds himself on his back too often, it'll be a long night. Gamburyan's name recognition may be driving this line up, but I don't think it's as much a mismatch as the oddsmakers. Is Gamburyan's shoulder fully healed? It should be, but this is a big time card. MMA is a mental game as much as anything. I think Mohr will catch Gamburyan coming in and that will lead to a second round TKO.
5) Luis "Banha" Cane (7-0, 6 TKO) vs. James "Sandman" Irvin (12-4, 9 TKO, 2 Sub) - Light Heavyweight
The televised portion of the card starts with a banger's delight. Cane will be making his UFC debut and Irvin's fights always seem to please. After a dark card with a threatening forecast of decisions, it is unlikely this one will make the full fifteen minutes. Irvin will be returning from a knee injury that he sustained at UFC 71 in May. If Cane doesn't get the first-time UFC jitters, I think he'll win with a flurry of punches and knees. In any case, this should be a great fight to get your Saturday started. I'll take Cane by second round TKO.
6) Soa Palelei (8-1, 6 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Eddie "The Manic Hispanic" Sanchez (7-1, 5 TKO, 2 Sub) - Heavyweight
Palelei is another UFC rookie making his debut and he'll do it against the newly nicknamed Eddie Sanchez. This will be Sanchez's fourth UFC bout. Actually, he's 2-1, only losing to Cro Cop. Palelei's list of wins is not very recognizable. I wonder if Sanchez is still getting credit for stepping in against Cro Cop when he was still considered the #2 heavyweight in the world? I also wonder why this fight is on the main card? I really can't say much about Palelei, therefore I roll with the "Manic Hispanic". Both guys have TKOs to their credit, so I wonder if Sanchez will shoot and try to win on the ground? Nah. Sanchez by second round TKO.
7) Rich "No Love" Clementi (29-12-1, 10 TKO, 13 Sub) vs. Melvin "Young Assassin" Guillard (20-6-2, 13 TKO, 4 Sub) - Lightweight
Back to the lightweights for our next bout and a war of words to boot. Both fighters have been jawing back and forth and hyping this battle. Guillard is coming off a humiliating submission loss to Joe Stevenson in April. On paper, it would seem Guillard is the clear favorite here, however, Clementi has been around the block a few times and I don't think it'll be an easy fight. I'm not sure if Guillard will be caught as easily as he was before and I don't think Clementi is the ground specialist that Stevenson is. Guillard really needs a win here to get back in the title picture. The lightweight division does not allow for many consecutive slipups. I like Guillard here but I think Clementi will give a good test. Guillard by third round TKO.
8) Lyoto Machida (11-0, 3 TKO, 1 Sub) vs. Rameau "African Assassin" Sokoudjou (4-1, 3 TKO) - Light Heavyweight
An interesting bout on several levels. Sokoudjou, who has come out of nowhere, has risen to prominence after two KO wins over Ricardo Arona and Antonio Rogerio Noguiera. Machida, despite being undefeated, seems to get no respect from any quarter. So, either, Machida is STILL getting no respect with Sokoudjou making his UFC debut. Or, they're really baptizing Sokoudjou in fire by giving him a borderline top 5 UFC heavyweight in his first go. Sokoudjou has the advantage in that it is unlikely Machida will push the pace and Sokoudjou will be able to get used to the Octagon a little. If Sokoudjou is able to get his bearings, I think he may have an advantage with his heavier hands. If he lets Machida dictate pace, however, he'll lose by decision to the crafty UFC veteran. I think I am looking forward to this fight as much as I can given the next two battles. I'd like to see Sokoudjou win, more so, for the entertainment value of him and his future fights. He has the pedigree to do it, but Machida is a tough cookie. I'm on a bit of a roll taking the new guys. Why stop now? Sokodjou by TKO in round two.
9) Chuck "Iceman" Liddell (20-5, 13 TKO. 1 Sub), #5 MMA Torch Nation ranked Light Heavyweight vs. Wanderlei "Axe Murderer" Silva (31-7-1, 21 TKO, 4 Sub), #4 MMA Torch Nation ranked Light Heavyweight - Light Heavyweight
Well, this is the fight most have been waiting on for years. Too bad, these fighters are a combined 0-4 in their last two fights each. Still, it makes the drama higher doesn't it? The time off can only have done Silva good. The long time PRIDE champ is actually 1-2 in the UFC, but it has been a while. Liddell has lost a lot of luster in his back to back losses. It would seem that his legend has been tarnished a bit, but a win here inthis epic setting would put him back in the thick of things for sure. Silva, newly inked, isn't going anywhere, especially if he puts another W in his record. I'm sure you've read all you want about this fight nearly everywhere on the MMA internet. Keith Jardine showed the world how to beat Chuck Liddell. it would seem to me that Silva not only could execute the game plan, but do it even better than Jardine did. There is every reason to expect this fight to be a classic. Silva looks ready in every photo and interview I've seen. Tough fight to call, but I think Silva has seen the light and has the skills to outstrike Liddell. Silva by TKO in round three.
10) Matt Hughes (41-5, 14 TKO, 18 Sub), MMA Torch Nation #2 ranked Welterweight vs. Georges "Rush" St. Pierre (14-2, 6 TKO, 4 Sub), MMA Torch Nation #1 ranked Welterweight - Interim UFC Welterweight Championship
And, the main event! What a way for the UFC to end the year. Again, you've probably read the hype for this fight. Will St. Pierre be ready to go? Will Hughes really change up his game plan? It has been said over and over how this is the rubber match and it is. But, this is not like a game 7 or overtime. Hughes beat St. Pierre over THREE years ago. Since then, St. Pierre has improved every aspect of his game vastly. And, the last hurdle was dominating Hughes in their rematch over a year ago at UFC 65 to win the title. Despite the slipup to Serra, it is hard for me to see how Hughes will win this fight. Hughes is a legendary fighter. There is absolutely no debate about that, but at this point in time, St. Pierre is a better striker, faster, much more agile, much more well-rounded and at least an even wrestler with Hughes. Can Hughes win? Sure. But, objectively, St. Pierre is an easy choice here. I don't think they'll need five round for this one. St. Pierre by second round TKO.
As always, questions should be directed to me on the forum. Get YOUR picks in to be the next #1 Prediction contender or the next #1 "Playing with Money" contender.
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