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Cattelane Blog - A brief look at UFC 77
Jerry Cattelane - MMA Torch columnist
Oct 20, 2007, 02:48
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Things have been pretty hectic at my house lately, but I'm wondering if this PPV didn't just sneak up on everybody else too. I was watching a little Sportscenter last night and there on my screen was the face of the UFC himself, Dana White, black shirt and all.
So, in the interest of content, here's a brief look at the PPV as well as my usual stellar picks. Keep in mind that I, just like everybody else, know absolutely nothing...
UFC 77:Hostile Territory
1) Matt "Wolverine" Grice (8-1, 3 TKO, 3 Sub) vs. Jason Black (21-3-1, 4 TKO, 11 Sub)
Both fighters have been active this year. Each has two previous fights and each has lost their last bout. Black has been in their with some better names in Shinya Aoki and Thiago Tavares, Tavares being his only UFC bout and a submission loss to boot. Grice is 0-1 in his UFC career also, losing to Terry Etim by submission. Miletich fighter (Black) vs. wrestler from Oklahoma. Hmmm. Has all the making of a ground war and a tough fight to call off the getgo. I'll lean towards Black by unanimous decision.
2) Josh Burkman (8-4, 2 TKO, 3 Sub) vs. Forrest "The Meat Cleaver" Petz (13-4, 6 TKO, 4 Sub) - Welterweights
Burkman was last seen giving Karo Parisyan a run for his money in May. It'll be Burkman's third fight of 2007 when he takes on Petz. Petz is pretty well rounded and sports a 2-2 UFC record. Both fighters have been quite the decision machines in the last few fights. Burkman appears to be the higher level fighter at this point in time. He went fifteen minutes with one of the best in the division and that should give him all sorts of confidence. I'll go with Burkman to get back in the win column with a third round submission win.
3) Ryan Jensen (11-2, 3 TKO, 8 Sub) vs. Demian Maja (5-0. 1 TKO, 3 Sub) - Middleweights
Jensen lost his last UFC all of two months ago to Beazilian sensation Thales Leites. So, now he faces another Brazilian fighter, except Maja is making his UFC debut. 5-0 is 5-0 as they say. With that in mind and little else to go with at this point, I'll roll with Maja to submit Jensen in the second round.
4) Jorge Gurgel (11-2, 9 Sub) vs. Alvin "Kid" Robinson (8-2, 8 Sub) - Lightweights
This looks like a pretty good fight on paper. Robinson is a pretty decent lightweight in a deep division and Gurgel looks better and better with each appearance after his injury. Robinson's last bout was a loss by strikes to Ken Florian all of three months ago. Gurgel decisioned Diego Saraiva on the same card. Gurgel seems to have the momentum right now and he's fighting on the undercard of his buddy's PPV. Plenty of motivation here for Gurgel, the question is can he finish. I think he might. Gurgel by third round submission.
5) Stephan "American Psycho" Bonnar (10-4, 1 TKO, 7 Sub) vs. Eric "Ravishing Red" Schaefer (7-2-2, 5 Sub) - Light Heavyweights
The new first rule of UFC predictions is do not pick against anything related to Randy Couture, his training partners or training facility unless you have a sure-fire, can't miss, obvious as death and taxes reason. Bonnar was very impressive in taking out Mike Nickels at UFC 73 in July and working with Team Extreme Couture has that golden aura about it these days. Schaefer's last fight was ten months ago to Michael Bisping when everybody in the U.S. still liked him. Bonnar looks to be on the upside here and I have long since learned to pick against momentum and Randy Couture. I'll go with Bonnar by submission in the second round.
6) Kalib Starnes (8-1-1, 2 TKO, 5 Sub) vs. Alan "The Talent" Belcher (10-3, 6 TKO, 3 Sub) - Middleweights
Starnes is coming off of a BIG (in terms of importance) win against Chris Leben back in May. Starnes was coming off a knockout loss to Yushin Okami and there was definitely some cynicism about his UFC future. He answered the critics to decision Leben and run his UFC record to 2-1. Belcher is 2-2 in the UFC with losses to Kendall grove and also Okami. His last fight was also on the card as Starnes and he choked out Sean Salmon. Tough fight to call here. Grove made Belcher look bad, worse than he clearly is. Starnes. however, really showed me quite a bit in fighting Leben. I think this is as close a fight as we'll see on the card and truthfully, I'm tossing a the proverbial coin here. Heads. So, we go with Starnes by unanimous decision.
7) Yushin Okami (20-4, 7 TKO, 4 Sub, Torch Nation #5 ranked UFC Middleweight) vs. Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald (19-8, 2 TKO, 16 Sub) - Middleweights
Okami was last seen nearly breaking Rich Franklin's leg after 13 minutes of relatively uninspired passive performance. Franklin hung on to get out of the hold and preserve his opportunity at redemption tonight. MacDonald also fought Franklin, but had a much different result getting absolutely blasted en route to a two round corner stoppage. When he is on, Okami is likely as good as anyone in the division. When he is not, he looks very ordinary. MacDonald is a very good fighter that ran into Franklin at a bad time. One has to wonder if Okami is next in line for a shot should Silva defend. Big fight for both men, but I think Okami will bring his "A" game and if he does, MacDonald might be in for a rough night. Okami by unanimous decision.
8) Brandon "The Truth" Vera (8-0, 6 TKO, 1 Sub, Torch Nation #4 ranked UFC Heavyweight) vs. Tim "The Maine-iac" Sylvia (23-3, 16 TKO, 2 Sub) - Heavyweights
Perhpas the most intriguing fight of the night. For those of you who don't remember, Vera was on the hot road to the title. He won 4 UFC fights in thirteen months, ending the run with a 65 second destruction of Frank Mir. Then, came the contract issues and since November 2006, he has been absent from the Octagon. Sylvia made an ignominious notch in jistory by losing his belt to Randy Couture in March. Neither fighter heas fought professionally since. With Couture questing for Fedor and a vacant heavyweight belt, the division is in as much flux as ever. A loss here isn't devastating, but it sure will hurt given the recent activity of these fighters. Most are considering this a play-in fight for a title shot and I think that is absolutely the plan. I expect both fighters to feel each other out for most of the first round, then implement game plans in the second. It will be interesting to see how Vera gets to Sylvia. Couture seems to have written the playbook, but can Vera read it? Or, has Sylvia changed his game up some. Lots of questions to answer in fifteen minutes. This might be one of the last stands for the Miletich camp in the UFC spotlight for now. Tough fight to call. If Vera can shake off the ring rust early, I think his speed and ability to dictate pace will win him the day. I'm really not ready to see Sylvia set up for another title run, HOWEVER, if he pulls out the win, and really, there's no reason he can't, he'll have to do it impressively. We'll see what happens (well, you will, I'll be at work). Vera by unanimous decision.
9) Anderson "The Spider" Silva (19-4, 11 TKO, 3 Sub, Torch Nation #1 ranked UFC Middleweight and UFC MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPION) vs. Rich "Ace" Franklin (22-2, 11 TKO, 9 Sub, Torch Nation #3 ranked UFC Middleweight)
Well, here it is, Rich Franklin at the crossroads of his career. Win, and he's back on top of the world. Lose, and, well you'd have to wonder what's next. Lose in highlight reel fashion and then what? My opinion is that if Franklin loses, he goes down the Tito Ortiz pathway, waiting for the champion to lose, retire, resign or sign with M-1 before getting another sniff. That's a lot of motivation. Throw in that the fight is on Franklin's home turf and before his home crowd and you have the best opportunity against arguably the world's best striker that he's going to get. Considering all of that, his opponent has made realtively short work of what is the shallowest division in the UFC. Still, he has beaten who he has to beat and is the top dog. I have a hard time seeing where "Ace" is going to want this fight to go. The other thing is will he be able to dictate where the fight goes. Maybe Franklin tries to take it to the mat and work out a ground and pound win. Maybe he tries to outcardio Silva and get this into the championship rounds and ride the crowd energy. Hmmm. Tough to see for me. I think Silva is ready to put his long-term stamp on the division with a crowning victory here. Silva's win over Marquardt was impressive to me and enough for me to take him here. It's been a year of upsets and a Franklin win would certainly qualify, but Silva is just a bad matchup for him. I'll take Silva to retain with a third round TKO.
As always the message boards are open and we will be reranking the Torch Nation ranking after this PPV and YOUR voice is welcome. Check out the message board for more information!
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